Originally Posted by
Packrat
Your numbers are fuzzy. Where did you get 18K retirements in the next 10 years? You're also assuming that no more airlines go out of business, there is no hiccup in the economy, fuel prices remain stable, a whole plethora of variables.
Remember 2001? How many guys got furloughed? How many guys saw their upgrade go from 6 to 12-15 years?
What happens if the age rule goes to 67? 70?
Sorry to pop your fantasy balloon. Congrats to people who do get hired. Those of you who don't...try not to be too bitter.
And why is it ok for you to forecast doom and gloom but not ok for anyone to forecast optimism?
This thread is direct proof that everyone on this website(myself included) is blatantly clueless about what will actually happen. Why is your scenario more probable than mine?
U.S. Airline Pilot Retirements
Those numbers are a little old but if someone was going to turn 65 in 2021 before they still are now.
I'll save you the trouble of clicking on it. It says that by 2024 19,000 pilots will retire from major airlines.