Originally Posted by
pagey
Now it is not theory but FACT that there are 18k major retirements in the next decadeish. There are only about 20k regional pilots(Probably about 20% of which are lifers). Obviously that is not the only pool but again, even if you add 50% to that for 135/91/military thats 30k pilots....for almost 20k positions. The odds aren't all that bad.
Your numbers are fuzzy. Where did you get 18K retirements in the next 10 years? You're also assuming that no more airlines go out of business, there is no hiccup in the economy, fuel prices remain stable, a whole plethora of variables.
Remember 2001? How many guys got furloughed? How many guys saw their upgrade go from 6 to 12-15 years?
What happens if the age rule goes to 67? 70?
Sorry to pop your fantasy balloon. Congrats to people who do get hired. Those of you who don't...try not to be too bitter.