As of right now, upgrade times are around 8 years. That will drop with the additional aircraft coming on board and attrition picking up. I'm guessing 3 to 4 year upgrades if hired today. 2018 is the year when the retirements go gangbusters. So only time will tell the truth on this shortage. I'm thinking about the time all the EMB start arriving next winter and the retirements at the majors start really picking up, upgrade times should start dropping dramatically. If these crappy schedules continue, which Mesa said they have no reason to make them more efficient. You will see a mass exodus when the hiring picks up. I have been sitting around the house drinking beer, waiting for Delta to knock on my door, " We need you skillet". It just hasn't happened yet, must drink more beer.