Many of us doubt the veracity of a pilot shortage. As you allude to, the truth is, there's a shortage of experienced pilots in their 40s willing to work for regional wages. Most certainly all of them (myself included) have paperwork in at AA, and the other majors. I'm in a similar situation as yours in that I may have to take a step back to go forward (Age 43, 9300TT, 6752PIC, 1400TPIC, all fixed wing, all civilian, 3 jet type ratings, but little recency of experience in last few years). Was offered a regional gig but the salary drop will be painful. Although many of my colleagues have advised to do it short term, that equation does not account for risk. What if...X happens and the call to the big league never comes. Now what? I think that's what it comes down to - your personal tolerance for risk.