The shortage has been manifesting itself for a number of years now: It is slowly gathering steam, and pretty soon the only shortage deniers will be the ones who belong to the "Flat Earth Society"...flatearthsociety.org

 

Sigh,

I can't believe you actually fly airplanes for a living.

 

1. sends a message to mainline they deserve a better contract for the same product due to higher labor costs.

It comes from anyone who pushes such a message and we often hear "pilot shortage" from just about all sides- regionals, mainline, aircraft companies, flight schools, and pilots to name a few. The latter is the one group that stands to really lose if they choose to believe in a falsehood. I am very pro-pilot, so it agonizes me to hear so much nonsense on this subject. If there is a real shortage then fine there is one, but there are numerous indicators right now clearly showing otherwise such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics material and the FAA airman statistics I pointed to earlier.

2. drives down those operating costs by increasing the quality of pilot labor, and in turn drives down training costs.

I'll take your facetious agreement at face value. But no, the idea is not to have zero training and zero airplanes, it is to have less training for the same number of workers. A major cost for airlines is the training department. If you get only hot shots all the time, then your training costs go down. Get it? And how do you get more hot shots? You advertise there is a pilot shortage which may or may not exist.

3. sells regional jet transition courses which several companies receive kickbacks from.

Of course. Higher wages would work even better, but the idea of easy hiring and rapid advancement brings applicants in droves. And while I suspect it works less now as the word is out you may never get to mainline from a given regional job, it still works. It works great in fact, no doubt about it.

4. makes recruiting cheaper.

No I said they will come and they do come. Recruiting gets more expensive when you can't the people you want. More applicants to choose from makes it easier and cheaper for airlines to find who they want. Sit there and sift through a thousand great resumes, job well done. Make sense?

5. promotes airline position against organized labor via excess supply.
I tried to state as clearly as I could it is the MESSAGE is that counts, not the real situation. A false shortage message is a message that brings more pilots. More pilots means a surplus of labor. A surplus of labor means they get cheaper labor. Got it? I suspect you just don't want to get it.

6. increases reserve labor supply.

Who said cut the fleet size? "I" didn't.

7. maximizes industry position vis-a-vis FAA regulation.
FAA and industry are always both partners and opponents in life and trade- offs are the order of the day. Tighter regulation means higher costs so airlines do not want that, and less regulation means a bunch of things that Congress and the FAA do not want. Each side has to justify it position. A false shortage, or for that matter a real one, is a huge way for airlines to get what they want in this negotiation. What about this doesn't make sense to you?

But here's the key- it is a message only, not the actual shortage situation. A real pilot shortage is a serious problem for the airline industry and something it dreads terribly. The appearance of a shortage is the desirable commodity and not an actual shortage.

I see less reason for mainline to advertise a pilot shortage that does not exist than anybody else, but then again I am more aware of issues at the regional level and do not claim to know a whole lot about their purposes. What I hear at the regional level though, is a ton of stuff about a pilot shortage that is at best a weak one at this point.

An oversupply of anything results in a weakened bargaining position.

A little out of my league speculating on mainline's goal structure, but only a real pilot shortage will end up costing them money. I am not talking about a real one. While even the sound of a pilot shortage might be taken as an ill omen to investors, I doubt any serious impact would be felt on stock value unless actual problems were being encountered due to pilot supply. In the case of a false message of a pilot shortage, there is no real impact.

Ok thanks. Meanwhile I'll keep asking you for the numbers you never produce showing there is presently a pilot shortage.

 

The only carrier that paid well and still faced a pilot shortage was Munchkin Airlines.
They solved it with booster seats.