Fly Navy

I have a unique situation and would appreciate any honest feedback.
As a former US Navy helicopter pilot with my Commercial - Airplane single- and multiengine land, and Instrument - Airplane ratings, I seriously considered going into the airlines back in 2007. To make a long story short, it was ultimately the low pay as a regional FO I would have to endure which led me to not pursue this path. After making this decision, I have been flying civilian medical helicopters for the past 7 years.

My family and I recently moved to Phoenix, and a lot of my neighbors are airline pilots. A couple weeks ago, I was chatting with a FO for a major airline, and when he learned of my background, he said that I may be more competitive now than in the past for an airline gig because of the upcoming "pilot shortage" and the new hiring mins.

I wonder, do you all foresee the majors being more lenient in hiring standards with a guy like me who's a former Navy helo pilot, dual rated, 3000+ TT, 1300+ Multiengine Helicopter time, 225+ hours Actual Instrument, 125 hours of fixed wing time (mostly T-34C single engine turboprop), BS Aerospace Engineering and a graduate of the Navy School of Aviation Safety? In 2007, I was told I would have to pay my dues in the regionals due to my low fixed-wing time, but that would be very challenging now as a 40 year old with a family to support. Unless, of course, the new FAA mandated hiring mins (1500 TT) and the upcoming age 65 retirements will drive FO pay at the regionals way up.

Also, if I was hired by say, the new American, I wonder roughly how long I could expect before upgrading to captain. With a 25 year flying career before turning 65, I wonder how much of that I could reasonably expect to be sitting in the left seat.

Thank you in advance for the helpful replies!

Std Deviation

Many of us doubt the veracity of a pilot shortage. As you allude to, the truth is, there's a shortage of experienced pilots in their 40s willing to work for regional wages. Most certainly all of them (myself included) have paperwork in at AA, and the other majors. I'm in a similar situation as yours in that I may have to take a step back to go forward (Age 43, 9300TT, 6752PIC, 1400TPIC, all fixed wing, all civilian, 3 jet type ratings, but little recency of experience in last few years). Was offered a regional gig but the salary drop will be painful. Although many of my colleagues have advised to do it short term, that equation does not account for risk. What if...X happens and the call to the big league never comes. Now what? I think that's what it comes down to - your personal tolerance for risk.

CRM114

Labor supply and demand will affect wages to an extent, but that doesn't happen quickly. As noted, there really isn't a shortage of qualified pilots, it's really more of a shortage of pilots willing to work for crap wages. It will be interesting to see the industry answer to that problem. A $6,000 (taxable) signing bonus is as good as it gets right now, hardly the stuff dreams are made of.

Your bigger problem is that you're not currently qualified. You'll need an ATP-Airplane rating with more than 125 hours fixed wing to get an interview anywhere.

mike734

The new 1500 hour rule may drive up pay but you'd never know it by the looks of the latest "take it or leave it" contract being shoved down the throats of some of our colleagues these days. Only time will tell.

Unless you think your marriage can survive the low pay and time away from home that you will have to endure as a regional new hire, I'd say wait. Chances are you'd be miserable under today's conditions. Then again, if you can manage a few years you timing might be pretty good.

Sweatsock

It's hard to say whats going to be happening in the future. We are coming into a huge retirement cycle at the majors. My airline (Usairways) loses about 40% of its pilot force by the end of this decade. By 2025 there are only about 800 of the current pilots that will be left. I do not have numbers for the AA side of things but I do know their retire cycle kicks in big time a few years after ours does.

I have a Coast guard friend from years ago that was in your situation back in the late 90's. He went to a regional to get his fixed wing time. Sadly I cannot give you an update on him since we have lost touch so I don't know if he ever moved up to the majors or not.

As far as the shortage goes? Well I was reading a few week ago in plane business or some related aviation magazine that last year there were only about 300 commercial certificates issued. If that holds, then I would say you have a good shot in your last 25 years to 65 at a decent career.

CGfalconHerc

Have you thought about corporate or fractionals? By bud in the Coast Guard had to transition to the H-60 Jayhawk from the HU-25 Falcon when the CG put a bunch of Falcons in the boneyard. He wound up getting on with NETJETS and now he flies Tiger Woods around the Caribbean in a Citation X. He says NETJETS gave him credit for his rotary time.

May be an option with a decent QOL as you build fixed wing time.

"We keep you alive to serve this ship..row well and live"

USMCFLYR

Read the 'NetJets latest & greatest' thread in the fractional section.
It will likely be a long wait to get on with NJA.

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/fr...-greatest.html

block30

Show me this article, please. http://api.viglink.com/api/click?for...13909399524509 Check out slide 13. Has the number of commercials gone down over time? Absolutely! But three hundred last year? I'd love to see that data.

Sweatsock

My bad, the article said 3000 last year, left a zero off. It was in a magazine that was left by another pilot so I do not remember which one. I have no verification of that number though. that's why I stated "if that holds"
last numbers I could find in a quick search was 2011 data 8559 Commercials and 4677 ATP's.

My airline alone loses at least 1400 in the next 7 years. Currently we have 800+ over 60 now. Causing issues on the international flights with the over 60 pairings and bidding.

With 172 rental rates going at $150 to $200 an hour minus instructor and avgas at 8 bucks a gallon in many places I can how the 3000 number could be accurate.

block30

Thanks for your reply. Yeah, the number of new commercials is indeed falling dramatically. Of those who do get a commercial, not all stay in the US, not all fly professionally, and not all go the airline route. Which is why I so vehemently agree with JungleBus's post about "The Insanity of Concessions in 2014." I would love to know what upper management is smoking or what their big picture plan is!