They'll find away around the shortage. Cargolux is allowing Lufthansa Cityline pilots jobs on a temporary basis to fill vacancies. I wish I could only post a link!!

I figure the airlines will find ways. I hope like heck the unions prevent any sort of filling of vacancies like over in Belgium.

 

There is no shortage. There is no evidence of a shortage in the US now or in the future. The industry is shrinking, and the number of pilots is not. Get over it, everyone. Let's move on and not act like such sheep, bolting in one direction or the other, believing ridiculous and completely unfounded rumors. You keep your fingers crossed for a pilot shortage, and I'll plan for a real future.

 

The number of PSMs in the US is boring, and predicted to grow thru 2025+. One of the biggest drivers in the pilot shortage is foreign carriers...their PSMs r forecast to grow at a very fast rate. There are more and more foreign carriers starting us pilot bases....they used to be 0. When emirates/etihad/qatar star us bases and/or commuting contracts for us pilots, along with all hiring in the majors, it will be a huge change.

 

I was told by a Luxenburger that Cargolux years ago went to the flying clubs trying to source pilots,
Thats what I was told and it sounded good,
If that happens in the USA or Europe then you can say there is a demand for pilots.

 

I think we need to replace the word "shortage" with "movement" or "opportunities".

Shortage implies that there aren't enough pilots to fill seats and I just don't think that is going to happen. I have been in the business 20 years and have always been as skeptical as the next guy concerning a pilot "shortage".

HOWEVER, as one who found himself back in the job market in 2008-9 after my "career" job vanished due to outsourcing, I can say that the last 12 months have shown FAR more opportunities and movement in the industry. I was scouring job boards, knocking down doors, and calling all of my contacts in 2008 and there was absolutely nothing out there. It has been monumentally different in the last 12 months and I have even gotten to the point where I can be a bit choosy. Of course, retirements at the Major Airlines is driving this as well as a number of retirements I am seeing at Fortune 500 corporate departments (it appears to me that the same age demographic is at play there as well).

For those that are qualified (and those minimum qualifications will loosen up), there should be plenty of opportunities - but I don't think any "career" outfits will ever need to park airplanes due to lack of bodies. (Unless they just get behind the 8 ball as far as hiring/training goes).

 

Thats how it is opportunities and movement and it could be a good idea to join a good flying club too just in case.

 

PSMs = ? Passenger service miles? Personal storage modules? I agree, pretty boring.

If you read the USBLS analysis they say the trend is toward larger passenger aircraft in the US carrying more people and using less pilots. Less pilots is possible via larger aircraft with higher passenger counts. It also squares with what we see all over the world. I do not really follow the international markets like you probably do, I read they are growing so I take your point on that, but be careful generalizing it to the US. What you are saying does not agree with the USBLS at all.

More to the point, pushing the message there is a pilot shortage without offering any statistical evidence to back it up is tantamount to leading pilots to slaughter. It is a huge disservice to encourage the expectation of jobs that do not/may not exist. People spend their life savings in training as pilots, and it goes to mention they also develop heartfelt expectations that can't be fulfilled when we do that. It is ethically irresponsible to trumpet false hopes. The airlines and airplane companies will trumpet "pilot shortage" to the end of time because it makes them money- they get cheaper pilots or sell more airplanes. But we as pilots need to do better than that. We need to use real numbers and back up our wishful thinking with facts. We need to be willing to accept those facts and adjust our expectations to fit.

 

The question would be, why is an airline in the US going to clubs to source pilots? The answer would likely be that the pay is so low, no pilots are applying. They will go to great lengths to source.

Cargolux may be in a different position since there just aren't as many pilots in Belgium as in the US.

 

Especially interesting since Cargolux isn't from Belgium. Hmmmm...

GF

 

As usual, you are wrong again.
Several Japanese carriers (and I believe Cathay freighters) had US bases in the past. Including a smattering of Chinese carriers that had/were proposing US bases back in 2006.

I would be highly surprised if EK or EY ever had US bases as they don't want to give up that kind of control.