Originally Posted by
brianb
I still can't figure out why there will not be a Pilot shortage system wide in this country. The 15000hr rule is an obstacle to aspiring Pilot's, the new rest rules are an obstacle to management, the continued rising costs to obtain your certs/ratings is an Pilot obstacle not to mention if you have to self finance part of the 1500hrs and the continued low starting wages at Regional airlines is a Pilot obstacle. When the guy's/gal's at the 1500hr level and above are gone, who will be left to fill the gap? Add in the foreign airlines expansion and their lack of Pilot's and what do you come up with? Simple, no Pilot's.
People will accept the inflated costs and longer path to an ATP if the compensation once one gets qualified makes it worthwhile.
Right now, its not even close for new pilots.
When Delta struggles to fill classes, there will truly be a scarcity of pilots. When a regional struggles to fill classes, it simply shows a shortage of pilots willing to accept that level of compensation. Raise the compensation and the shortage goes away - Econ 101 market equilibrium curves.
My crystal ball says fewer, larger airplanes with reduced frequency to most markets...