Originally Posted by
Packrat
Amazing to me how many young guys ASSUME they'll be making it to the majors. It would be like EVERY minor league baseball/hockey player assuming they'll make it to the big show.
All you have to do is count the number of ATPs and subtract the number of active Major airline pilots who are retiring.
Why does everyone assume that every single ATP is going to be going to one of the Big 3? There are MANY more opportunities that have similar or better QOL and pay than just the major airlines. Yes, that's where the highest percentage of ATP jobs are, but that's an incredibly irresponsible inference.
A real study would look at the number of Active ATPs with age. It would then take the number of total jobs requiring an ATP and compare that to the amount of ATPs retiring. If the rate of retirement of ATPs is exceeding the amount being created per annum, then you will eventually see a pilot shortage. THAT is the hack way of using statistics. There are many, many more scientifically credible ways to more accurately estimate a shortage. Your narrow-minded math is insufficient.