Originally Posted by
jungle
Some of us have had our heads tamped so full of state school bull that we can no longer select the most probable outcome from a list of probable outcomes.
Nobody has made an assumption, they have made a guess based on available evidence, to deny the highest probability is to admit the death of your common sense.
This isn't a multiple choice test where you choose the most correct answer. You've been given 3 bricks and are trying to build the Empire State Building. Right now, the only options eliminated from the list of probable outcomes are fiery explosion, landed at destination, and landed at origin. There are now thousands of other possibilities and not enough concrete facts to reasonably even GUESS as the most probable. If crash in ocean, land in Iran, and land on remote island are all logical possibilities, then you actually have no possibilities at all.