Originally Posted by
pagey
Those numbers don't really ramp up until 2018. That's 4 years from now.
Are you really telling me that someone hired at XJT today upgrades and holds a line before someone hired today at PSA/Mesa/Compass?
And also that person at XJT, with no turbine time has a better chance at a major than the person at those previous 3 with a couple years TPIC under their belt?
Yes, FOs are getting hired at majors. You are doing a disservice to a perspective new hire to tell them that TPIC won't matter however.
It'll be over 5,000 at a MINIMUM in 4 years. Over 7,000 at a minimum in 5 years.
That's just age 65 and that assumes all those pilot make it and/or choose to stay that long. There will be a lot of pilots required at other places too like the LCCs.
Any benefit for PSA will be extremely short lived. You are doing a huge disservice by spouting utter nonsense like "you will get stuck a decade if you go to a place like ExpressJet." That is utter nonsense. Over 22,000 retirements from the legacies in ten years, that is more pilots than currently exist at the regional level.
You are also assuming that your company will be able to sustain hiring. You have a training bubble now that has delayed your preferential interviews until the end of the year.
If you don't lose another check airman then maybe you'll catch up, but you'll lose those guys to the legacies just like every regional carrier currently is.
There is also finite simulator space available around the nation.
It is almost a given that you will lose your CRJ-200 fleet due to factors like this and the lack of new hires available industry wise. What does that do to your upgrade times?
The only reason you are selling PSA so hard is you need to sucker people into signing up to protect your projected upgrade time. Otherwise you actually have to live under your contract.