GF:
Thanks for the clarification on when they began looking. I had gotten the impression it was much, much later - not when the first handoff was missed or soon thereafter.
I also didn't understand that the ACARS system transmitted info about waypoints or waypoint changes. That makes sense and explains why some things are reported as being assured, I guess.
Regarding the transponder being off... if it isn't normally turned off, then I guess that, coupled with a reported change in waypoints sways my personal opinion away from it being a mechanical emergency.
I hope enough facts are eventually discovered and disclosed to provide an answer as to what probably happened, and I still hope it ends up being that it was something "innocent," though that seems improbable.
TheDude:
I know you didn't mention me specifically, but just in case you do wonder about me - I'm not a reporter. My profession of 27 years is LEO, which definitely influences how I ask questions and how I process what's reported. Sorry if it "smells" fishy, but mine definitely isn't a reporter smell.