Originally Posted by globalexpress

I think these latest two votes are going to mark a transitional period for the regional airline industry, assuming there isn't a terrorist attack, spike in oil prices, recession, etc., that causes the airline industry to shrink and/or reduce demand for airline pilots.

I think all airline management teams realize what they need to do, but the problem is no regional airline wants to be the first one to sign a contract that has $50,000/year First Officers, only to have something in that first paragraph happen and be saddled with a pilot contract with costs higher than those pilot groups who....ahem....would end up cheaper- like SkyWest, Endeavor, PSA, and the likes. They're in a bind, and there's no "cheap" way out of it. If they knew the economy was going to keep humming along as it has for the past few years, a smart regional could provide the appropriate pay increases for their pilots, absorb the resultant higher costs, but go to the majors offering the RFPs and say, "Hey, yeah, we're more expensive than our competitors, but we can actually staff our airline with pilots at the pay rates we're offering, unlike our competitors bidding on your flying who will leave your customers high and dry for lack of pilots."

That first regionals that do that should start dragging up wages across the board, because whichever regional airline pays that higher rate, paying that first year F/O $50,000/year, is going to get ALL the pilots they want. That will leave the other regionals hurting for pilot recruits. That kind of wage might even pull in all the guys/gals who have those 1,500 hours OUT of their non-flying jobs or non-airline jobs back into the airline biz, temporarily fixing their self-created pilot shortage- which we all know really isn't a shortage at all.....for now.

But my concern is even longer term. I find it hard to believe that major and regional airline management teams are going to let us lowly pilots push them around like this for long. They have got to be doing or lobbying for SOMETHING that will get them around this pesky 1,500 hr. rule. What that "something" is I'm not sure. Perhaps pushing for some sort of "ab initio" program with a defined path to a regional airline first officer seat? Something more sinister? Don't know.