Originally Posted by Mason32

AA will continue reducing envoy frequency as larger RJs slowly come online. They will also drop the lowest yield markets. They will - within a year - make envoy the ONLY way to AA with a bigger flow program. They will buy other regionals for staffing more than equipment.

Once envoy becomes the only way to AA it will drive recruiting way up as pilots from places like Mesa, TSA, GoJets etc... Race to get hired at envoy. They can continue applying everywhere else, and be secure in their eventual flow to AA. Eventually, AAG will develop an ab-initio program to take them from zero to regional hero, with flow to AA. Finally, once all those pilots dry up, they will eventually bring the flying back in house. Delta will act similarly, but is far behind AAG in getting it set up. I told people for the past few years that the only jobs worth having will be with wholly owned regionals. Soon, you'll all see why.

I've encouraged our guys to get ahead of this and number all the envoy guys. The company controls hiring. They will make envoy the only way to AA, and that will in essence put them in seniority order, and we can't stop it. By numbering them all, we then demand a representation vote. Kick ALPA out, bring them into APA and begin a new contract. Some hard liners here at APA still can't see that we need to do this now before our leverage is gone. If the company does make all of our hiring from envoy, we will lose that leverage. The company is going to use our job as a hiring tool for envoy; while we collect no dues for an entire pilot group that us essentially stapled to our list.

Places like Mesa will eventually become dead end jobs as each legacy after legacy copies this model to attract pilots. As they default on their contracts, the legacies will poach them at giveaway prices.

Knowing how they think, I'd put RAH and AW high on the list for potential acquisition.