Originally Posted by
pagey
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There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen...
No, but claiming there is a shortage now or soon is not supported by anything very good.
To the contrary, we know that while there will still be ~100k jobs for all comm/airline pilots around 2022, we also know from FAA data that ~140k "active" (not sure what that really means, but) ATPs are there to be had (see table), and the supply is fairly constant as well (see chart). A genuine, deep pilot shortage does not exist and probably will not exist in our lifetimes. The current problem is one of low pay- raise the pay and people will come back to the job, and new pilots will be created.
