Worsening Pilot Shortage
06-09-2014, 09:41 PM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Capt
Posts: 3,215
Worsening Pilot Shortage
most estimates show a need in the US for about 18,000 new pilots by the end of the decade. “Right now, that’s more pilots than all the regionals have combined.”
AND, the above figures are only for the US....foreign carriers have way higher pilot needs, and they will be recruiting more and more aggressively in the US, hence worsening the shortage in the US.
I think major airlines need to get off their butts:
1- They could finance loans to new pilots
2- They could hire pilots in high school and pay for their training, just like UAL did in the 1960s.
They need to do something, and fast. It doesn't seem like the pilot shortage is that bad right now, but it's just the tsunami wave retreating from the beach...pretty soon everyone will see how bad it is, and it will be getting progressively worse, probably monthly. I don't see the end of it...
06-09-2014, 09:53 PM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Posts: 241
Originally Posted by atpcliff
These are NEW pilots required. If all the regional pilots go to the majors, there still won't be enough pilots and planes for all the passengers who want to fly.
AND, the above figures are only for the US....foreign carriers have way higher pilot needs, and they will be recruiting more and more aggressively in the US, hence worsening the shortage in the US.
I think major airlines need to get off their butts:
1- They could finance loans to new pilots
2- They could hire pilots in high school and pay for their training, just like UAL did in the 1960s.
They need to do something, and fast. It doesn't seem like the pilot shortage is that bad right now, but it's just the tsunami wave retreating from the beach...pretty soon everyone will see how bad it is, and it will be getting progressively worse, probably monthly. I don't see the end of it...
AND, the above figures are only for the US....foreign carriers have way higher pilot needs, and they will be recruiting more and more aggressively in the US, hence worsening the shortage in the US.
I think major airlines need to get off their butts:
1- They could finance loans to new pilots
2- They could hire pilots in high school and pay for their training, just like UAL did in the 1960s.
They need to do something, and fast. It doesn't seem like the pilot shortage is that bad right now, but it's just the tsunami wave retreating from the beach...pretty soon everyone will see how bad it is, and it will be getting progressively worse, probably monthly. I don't see the end of it...
06-09-2014, 10:42 PM
#7
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Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: ERJ, CA
Posts: 718
I hate to say this, but don't pin your hopes on these forecasts. We will have another stock crash before that time OR we will sink into another great depression OR well will have a big war, OR all of the above. All the countries of the world are now embracing money printing. Europe, Japan; even China is getting into the housing stimulus act.
The original problems of massive debt, based on murky derivatives have not gone away. Inflating a bubble at home, when too many middle class jobs are gone, isn't working. If people don't have decent jobs, they aren't going to buy houses. They are letting anyone buy a car now, just to keep some big ticket items going. Most of the homes have been bought up by huge investment houses which turn them into rentals. The stock market has gone up 190% since 2009, does anyone really believe that can continue??
More money printing will stoke inflation of commodities again and oil will go thru the roof. Stopping money printing will send the economy into a tailspin. This lukewarm economy won't last.
The original problems of massive debt, based on murky derivatives have not gone away. Inflating a bubble at home, when too many middle class jobs are gone, isn't working. If people don't have decent jobs, they aren't going to buy houses. They are letting anyone buy a car now, just to keep some big ticket items going. Most of the homes have been bought up by huge investment houses which turn them into rentals. The stock market has gone up 190% since 2009, does anyone really believe that can continue??
More money printing will stoke inflation of commodities again and oil will go thru the roof. Stopping money printing will send the economy into a tailspin. This lukewarm economy won't last.
06-09-2014, 11:10 PM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2009
Posts: 611
Originally Posted by atpcliff
most estimates show a need in the US for about 18,000 new pilots by the end of the decade. “Right now, that’s more pilots than all the regionals have combined.”
Skywest 3300
Republic 3000
Eagle 2600
Endeavor 1900
Air Wisconsin 800
PSA 600
Compass 400
GoJet 500
Horizon 500
Mesa 800
Piedmont 300
Trans States 200
Total: 19,500
(All numbers from APC rounded down to the nearest 100)
I think the regionals have the future mainline staffing covered. Oh yeah, don't forget about the military pilots and all of the american pilots overseas that gave up on a good flying job in the U.S.might want to come back as well. Looks like the only pilot shortage is going to be for low paying regional jobs. This also assumes ZERO flight training. I think flight training might produce a few more pilots than ZERO over the next six years as well.
06-10-2014, 02:11 AM
#10
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Originally Posted by pete2800
450 of those 500 Horizon guys are lifers. Just saying. 
The regionals will be in full disaster mode in 18 months and the majors by the end of the decade. Let's face it; the clumsy, clueless clods in airline management could f up a cup of coffee and they will f this up too. In fact, they've ALREADY f'ed it up.
Only thing to do now is sit back and watch the unfolding disaster with bewilderment.
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