Worsening Pilot Shortage
06-10-2014, 09:44 AM
#31
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Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,067
Originally Posted by PeezDog
I agree with what other posters have said and what guys who ave been in the industry for years have said. Don't buy into this too much. That article above proves this song and dance has been played before.
06-10-2014, 09:47 AM
#32
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Position: ATP, CFI etc.
Posts: 6,056
This article Cliff quotes is not authoritative. It is based on Roger Cohen's opinion, and he is a motivated speaker at best, a paid representative of the Regional Airline Association. I urge anyone interested in the truth about the alleged pilot shortage to disregard his words entirely. Here's the article Cliff quoted, since he did not provide it in his post:
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
06-10-2014, 09:51 AM
#33
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Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 547
Originally Posted by rickt86
How did you get that number? The 824 flows right now are 500 seniority. More will defer, when the 824 ends I'd bet 750 total lifers.
The list is solid accept after me
06-10-2014, 09:55 AM
#34
Working weekends
Joined APC: Jul 2005
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 2,384
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
This article Cliff quotes is not authoritative. It is based on Roger Cohen's opinion, and he is a motivated speaker at best, a paid representative of the Regional Airline Association. I urge anyone interested in the truth about the alleged pilot shortage to disregard his words entirely. Here's the article Cliff quoted, since he did not provide it in his post:
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
One more credibility strike against the pilot-shortage-will-happen crowd.
06-10-2014, 10:03 AM
#35
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Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 445
My FBO school is packed with new students in the last few months. Instructors flying 8am-8pm, often cant catch a lunch break. A big difference from last year. Maybe all these stories are having the desired effect of attracting fresh meat to the industry.
It helps that we are on the doorstep of IAH... easy to get SJS
It helps that we are on the doorstep of IAH... easy to get SJS
06-10-2014, 10:20 AM
#36
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Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: Left
Posts: 1,809
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
This article Cliff quotes is not authoritative. It is based on Roger Cohen's opinion, and he is a motivated speaker at best, a paid representative of the Regional Airline Association. I urge anyone interested in the truth about the alleged pilot shortage to disregard his words entirely. Here's the article Cliff quoted, since he did not provide it in his post:
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
Fact is though, even if there are no NEW jobs available it will still call for NEW pilots due to retirements. So.....That little chart says that there are ~100,000 jobs right now. There are ~20,000 retirements in the next 10 years. So to even keep the jobs at 100k you need new pilots coming in to fill the void. That is where there shortage comes from. That 100k is not just 121 either. There percentage of turnover there will be in 121 is much higher than 20%.
There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen.
Originally Posted by satpak77
Outstanding work
One more credibility strike against the pilot-shortage-will-happen crowd.
One more credibility strike against the pilot-shortage-will-happen crowd.
06-10-2014, 10:20 AM
#37
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Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 270
Originally Posted by deftone
My FBO school is packed with new students in the last few months. Instructors flying 8am-8pm, often cant catch a lunch break. A big difference from last year. Maybe all these stories are having the desired effect of attracting fresh meat to the industry.
It helps that we are on the doorstep of IAH... easy to get SJS
It helps that we are on the doorstep of IAH... easy to get SJS
06-10-2014, 10:29 AM
#38
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Joined APC: Apr 2009
Position: Middle Seat
Posts: 1,202
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
This article Cliff quotes is not authoritative. It is based on Roger Cohen's opinion, and he is a motivated speaker at best, a paid representative of the Regional Airline Association. I urge anyone interested in the truth about the alleged pilot shortage to disregard his words entirely. Here's the article Cliff quoted, since he did not provide it in his post:
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
There will be fewer pilots that's a fact. There will also be a lot of retirements so it's not doom and gloom, but it's not exactly rainbows and leprechauns either.
06-10-2014, 10:48 AM
#39
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Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 81
Originally Posted by eaglefly
Even at $50/hour, that's not all that great and there is still a HEAVY price to pay. You do realize you'd be treated like garbage to the point the $50/hour would no longer be worth it and within 12-18 months you would likely be seeking a non-regional airline position, yes ?
The regionals problems are FAR more then just pay. Ask 90% of Envoy, Republic or Endeavor pilots. The glam of the E-175 and mid-sized cities ad nauseum will wear off quickly after 12 months of complete disrespect and rampant contractual violations and abuse. It's gotten to the point, the regionals are considered "slums" for pilots and many will be extinct within a few years. I'd be VERY careful of going to a regional even if they were to offer $50/hour to start. They have no plans to truly solve their problems and the feeble efforts they are making now won't alter their destiny. Even if the regionals DID do the right things, it will take years to replenish the necessary resource of "the pilot" and it's WAY too late now. They are so far behind the power curve, many carriers are doomed to crash into non-existence. Until each carriers impact point is revealed, they will continue to ride the stick-shaker and pray for an open field that for many will never come. It's sad that the industry has done so well in improving the human performance of pilots in the aircraft, yet failed so miserably at the same time to achieve that with the "pilots" in the front offices.
The regionals problems are FAR more then just pay. Ask 90% of Envoy, Republic or Endeavor pilots. The glam of the E-175 and mid-sized cities ad nauseum will wear off quickly after 12 months of complete disrespect and rampant contractual violations and abuse. It's gotten to the point, the regionals are considered "slums" for pilots and many will be extinct within a few years. I'd be VERY careful of going to a regional even if they were to offer $50/hour to start. They have no plans to truly solve their problems and the feeble efforts they are making now won't alter their destiny. Even if the regionals DID do the right things, it will take years to replenish the necessary resource of "the pilot" and it's WAY too late now. They are so far behind the power curve, many carriers are doomed to crash into non-existence. Until each carriers impact point is revealed, they will continue to ride the stick-shaker and pray for an open field that for many will never come. It's sad that the industry has done so well in improving the human performance of pilots in the aircraft, yet failed so miserably at the same time to achieve that with the "pilots" in the front offices.
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