That's funny how I've never heard that side of the story. Amazing how some things are mentioned and others aren't. Part of the master plan, I suppose. I'm sure that cliff has a rebuttal

 

There's a reason that base salaries for Airbus captains in China have risen from about $10K/month to $22.5K/month, in less than 10 years.

There's a reason that EK has hired tonnes of RJ pilots.

There's a reason that Qatar is hiring Direct Entry Captains.

There's a reason that Russia is now allowing US licensed pilots to fly for it's airlines.

There's a reason that some American/Euro pilots are starting to leave the ME and China in large numbers, to return to flying jobs in their home areas.

There's a reason that the regionals are hurting.

There's a reason that airlines like Atlas and DAL/UAL/AA are having guys call in and turn down class dates for them.

Too many pilots is not one of them!

 

And what is the reason that we are still paid poverty level wages at the regionals?

 

That reason:



I'm curious who is turning down class dates at Atlas, Delta, United and AA...I'd bet those are very few and far between, and if they are turning down a class date its because they got a *gasp* better offer.

 

Thread should really be titled "Worsening Regional Industry", not worsening pilot shortage...

 

Just read that Emirates had a "Roadshow" (pilot recruitment event) in Singapore, and not a single pilot turned up...they used to have a lot of pilots at almost all their roadshows....also said they had another in South Africa?...where all of the pilots EK were targeting...none of them showed up...they only got pilots that were not the type EK was looking for.

Another poster said EK needs 500+ pilots by the end of 2014, and they don't think they will make their recruiting goal.


China FIRST OFFICER Positions (plus Captain positions):
In still another post, saw that China and Taiwan-based Chinese airlines are currently looking for overseas First Officers (and Captains...Dash 8, 737-800, 747, 757, 767, A-320/-340, MD-80, C-130)....that is the first I had heard of FO hiring there.

5 weeks on/5 weeks off (sure you could live there, or have other commuting schedules)
pilots needed within 30 days.

The ONLY foreign FO hiring I EVER heard of in China was a few for 747 FOs, and that was only a few here and there.

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/fo...vacancies.html

 

Interesting discussion. Good points made by both sides.

My position is no shortage at the legacy level. RJ/135/CFI level, possible (new entrants to those industries)

 

It doesn't matter to you what a non-invested government research office that is staffed with educated researchers with no particular dog in the current fight have to say about this topic? I am starting to understand your failure to use quality data sources. You read garbage by industry wonks then come here and spew it to us. We need to put this borderline fairy tale about a pilot shortage on hold for a while, and talk about what a good source of data is. You cite some fellow working for the RAA while the rest of us return academic and government sources such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, peer-reviewed economics theory, and the FAA to name a few. Do you not see anything significant here? Cliff, you want to use unmotivated sources. Again, unmotivated sources.

We do? Newly made ATPs are included in that table and chart. Looking at private pilots, student pilots or boy scouts who like flying is not what we want. We want ready made pilots, train and employ. And that's what those charts show you. And it shows that we have too any ATPs for the number of flying jobs we have in the US. You always want to throw the world into the mix, but I refuse to talk about that. I speak about the US and there is no shortage of pilots in the US.

I am all for a free discussion on how many "active ATPs" per FAA lingo are not actually available to work as pilots here in the US. That is a valid discussion and there are some. But you have ZERO DATA on how many there are, nor do I. All we know is there is a large number of pilots with ATPS ready to work here.

 

The argument has been made that there's lots of inactive ATPs willing to come back if the pay and QOL was right. The problem is, a person can sit on the sidelines and wait for it (and it may never come) or at some point get back in the pool and take the hit.

At age 44, I had to jump back in the pool even though the water was cold. What's the alternative? The inactive ATPs are slowly realizing it's now or never and many I know are coming back and grunting it out. The last place I wanted to go was a regional at 26K a year. But without recency there's few choices.

 

Not many people have the experience required to go to China and be in command of an Airbus. The amount of pilots worldwide that meet that requirement is pretty small, vs. someone requiring a CL-65 or EMB-145, 170/190 type.

The Chinese medical is insanely hard, I have had two close friends go over there and two others I've known that didn't make it past the interview.

The pay is OK but you put up with a lot. It's not the US over there. I would gladly make $100k less and be able to stay in the US.

Same with the ME airlines, from an RJ seat they look nice but do a little research. Again, those airlines are extremely selective, it's not like they are coming to US hubs and staging recruiting sessions picking up guys left and right. Then factor in living in a "compound" in the desert surrounded by...desert...and many US enemies. You can't go four wheeling, skiing, fishing, boating, etc. on your time off like in the states. You basically fly and live at "home".

Back in 2005-2008 time frame my own commuter lost just under 20% of its work force annually to attrition, and the movement was QUICK back then. NWA, UAL, DAL, US were all hiring as well as SWA and Spirit expanding like crazy. The movement is about half there as it was 8 years ago currently.