Actually there will will be. Delta alone has to retire thousands by 2022, not to mention AA, UAL and SWA. Every major loves to claim they have X,000's of apps on file BUT it is the same X,000 guys with apps out at all of them with 90% of them willing to go to the first airline that offers them a job. Divide that number by at least three and that is the actual pool you have to choose from. Any company that can't see this is either delusional, in denial or both.

 

I should have added the sarcasm wink..

 

you guys are forgetting about the 1000's of highly qualified DOD / military pilots being made ... not to mention economic changes (downturns etc)... There will never be a shortage of pilots at the majors... they will simply have fewer to choose from than they did historically which is about 10 apps for every job.

 

Who are being required to have longer hitches if they can even get a gig not flying a UAV. The numbers just aren't there my friend. History does not apply to this situation.

 

You are missing the most important part of this. The regional jets bring people to the hubs so that the mainline aircraft are full. If you are not bringing 50 people from DeMoines to DFW and 75 people from Oklahoma city to Chicago, then that 767 will leave half full.

The majors NEED regionals to provide lift, or take it in-house themselves. A pilot shortage at the regionals has a huge impact on the majors.

A pilot shortage at the regionals is the same as a pilot shortage at mainline. Period.

 

nonsense... I have a few friends who are still flying in the military.. you guys are fooling yourselves..

The Air Force alone is 550 fighter pilots short now, and doing everything they can to retain pilots sure, but in the end after a 9 year commitment, these guys in their early 30's are going to all be looking for a job at the majors.. never mind the 1000s of transport and Army (they have a lot of fixed win as well), and Navy/Marines pilots.. Right now at UAL and DAL more than 1/2 the new hires are military. When you see them drop college degree requirements, and start to hire white males from the right seat of regionals, we can start to talk shortage.

I don't see it. I see a shortage at the regionals for sure, but as they continue to grow due to lack of good scope language (given up a decade ago), the jobs will not be created at the mainline, but rather at the "regional".. Sorry, to rain on the parade but this is reality.

 

Isn't the solution to the "pilot shortage" just fly bigger airplanes? Isn't this already happening?

 

that is right out of the Koolaid pitcher being served by all airline managers to pilots to give up scope.. nicely done!

You really think that a 90 seat (capacity of the DC9 back in the 70's and 80's) RJ flying between a major city and a mainline hub is doing anyone a favor other than the airline managers?

 

anyone remember the Nursing shortage of the last decade? Try to get a nursing job now...

same Koolaid..

 

Nope. Everything that we do benefits the airline managers. That is what we are supposed to do. Our job is to fly people from point A to point B as safely as possible and make the airline money.

The way that airlines make the most money is for as many seats as possible to be full.