Sliceback

How many USAF/USN guys are separating every year? Less than 1500. Probably closer to 1200-1300.

There's not enough military guys to cover the looming retirement bubble.

4V14T0R

There's a good dissertation sponsored by the RAND corporation the covers this topic as well as the civilian supply. It's the most encompassing study I've seen so far.


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bradthepilot

Link to said dissertation:
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand...ND_RGSD351.pdf

Tolpin

1139 pilots separated from the AF in 2015. That includes separation, Palace Chase, Palace Front and retirements. There are not enough military guys to fill the void.

galaxy flyer

And a similar number of Army and Navy USMC guys; plus next year's numbers. Separations won't fill the total retirement numbers, but can fill a large percentage of the early retirees openings taking the future's high seniority positions.

GF

Tolpin

Another looming issue is the fact that flight training is considered a vocation and not a profession in the eye of legislators. This perception prevents individuals from financing their flight training with student loans. Those who choose not to persue an undergrad degree with their flight training are forced to use personnal loans to pay their training costs. The shorter term and higher interest rates of personal loans cause the payments to be so high that it's nearly impossible for a pilot on a regional salary to survive.

To make matters worse, the VA just submitted a bill to prevent the post 9-11 GI Education Benifits from being used to fund flight training. Not only does this prevent those service members from using their earned benifits for flight training, it treats the pilot profession significantly different than other professions.

There needs to be some significant changes to the way flight training is payed for in the U.S.

29Eleven

Another point worth noting is that not every pilot who separates from the military has a desire to pursue a civilian job in aviation. I have flown with a lot of guys who tell me they have no desire to fly after they get out.

Toonces

My experience is that MOST of my friends in the military who were pilots have no desire to continue flying. It may be anecdotal experience. My next door neighbor was a Top Gun instructor and will likely never fly professionally, if he even flies again. There are two former P-8 pilots in my reserve unit who could care less about flying for a living now that they are off active duty. I've met a lot of former aviators in the reserves and only a handful are flying professionally.


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block30

Let's not focus solely on AF and Navy fixed wing guys. There are many rotary folks who are seeing the demand for pilots in the civilian world coupled with survivable first year pay. Personally, I've met several rotary folks who would previously separated from the military and done something non flying or non fixed wing. Not so much anymore.

Not saying military pilots alone will bridge the gap, but I'm emphasizing there are many more military pilots besides the AF and Navy fixed wing pilots.

1stCivDivPilot

I flew with a lot of USMC pilots that said being a glorified bus driver was not for them. I got the impression many thought it was beneath them as it wasn't what they considered real flying. I'm also pretty sure none of them could swallow the idea of a temporary pay cut to do the same job. That just means less competition.