Worsening Pilot Shortage
#161
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 955
Likes: 0
From: CL65
I have not credited less than 85 hours a month since my third month on the line, and often credit much more than that due to SDO pay. I would think that time on reserve plus upgrade time are very important.
PSA's pay was about equal to everyone else about 18 months ago, but the reserve time was really low as was the upgrade time. That is why PSA was able to hire so many people so quickly. Any prior 121 guys were making captains pay after 6 months. Now, upgrades have stopped, and people will be on reserve for a long time. The pay rates stayed the same, but the amount of money made by new hires is far less.
The pay rates mean nothing. Please understand this. The amount you are able to make is far more important, and not dependent on pay rates.
Last edited by CLT Guy; 02-18-2016 at 03:24 AM.
#163
There are a few things that are missing from this graph. One major thing is training pay. Some companies pay really well during training, and some pay less than guarantee. This equates to a few thousand dollars. Also, it is nice to "estimate" 75 hours of credit per month, but that is possible at some airlines, while it is easy to credit 90 at others.
I have not credited less than 85 hours a month since my third month on the line, and often credit much more than that due to SDO pay. I would think that time on reserve plus upgrade time are very important.
PSA's pay was about equal to everyone else about 18 months ago, but the reserve time was really low as was the upgrade time. That is why PSA was able to hire so many people so quickly. Any prior 121 guys were making captains pay after 6 months. Now, upgrades have stopped, and people will be on reserve for a long time. The pay rates stayed the same, but the amount of money made by new hires is far less.
The pay rates mean nothing. Please understand this. The amount you are able to make is far more important, and not dependent on pay rates.
I have not credited less than 85 hours a month since my third month on the line, and often credit much more than that due to SDO pay. I would think that time on reserve plus upgrade time are very important.
PSA's pay was about equal to everyone else about 18 months ago, but the reserve time was really low as was the upgrade time. That is why PSA was able to hire so many people so quickly. Any prior 121 guys were making captains pay after 6 months. Now, upgrades have stopped, and people will be on reserve for a long time. The pay rates stayed the same, but the amount of money made by new hires is far less.
The pay rates mean nothing. Please understand this. The amount you are able to make is far more important, and not dependent on pay rates.
#164
just past ETP
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 517
Likes: 0
From: Cruise Captain
Talked to a DAL checkairman. Said they trained a relatively recent UND grad. I used to live there, and it was a really big flight school....70+ fixed wing aircraft sometime in the last century. They turned out a LOT of airline pilots for America. Now the students are.....95%.....!!!! foreign students! No US passport, no greencard, no pilots for America. Wow!
Also, the DAL guy told me that without MAJOR changes, DAL will NOT be able to staff the airplanes they have now. Too many pilots retiring, and not enough American students to fill their shoes. He said he had NO idea how DAL was going to fix their future pilot shortage.
Also, the DAL guy told me that without MAJOR changes, DAL will NOT be able to staff the airplanes they have now. Too many pilots retiring, and not enough American students to fill their shoes. He said he had NO idea how DAL was going to fix their future pilot shortage.
Also, Does Skywest really pay a $7500 sign on bonus to everyone getting hired?
#166
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 304
Likes: 0
The same formula is used throughout the graph for a level playing field.
This graph is just contract rates and bonuses that I could find on recruiting pages. Period. All assumptions about credit hours, reserve times, upgrade times, etc., although important, are forecasts and assumptions, and there is no way to predict that accurately for 14 different airlines. Especially in this ever changing environment. So I just stuck to hard data to keep it a level playing field. If there were multiple A/C Types with multiple pay rates, I used a blended rate. Same thing for bonuses.
Also, I tend to agree with this:
Upgrade times are going to be fast everywhere with the amount of people moving to the majors, and faster for those companies that can fill vacancies and stay adequately staffed. As endeavor has shown, the best way to do that right now is NOT with flow agreements, but with better pay. I don't see how that's not the whole story or how you could possibly end up staying 5 years longer at endeavor over a contact carrier
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It's already old data, though. I just read that ExpressJet also raised first year pay to $40/hr. And GoJet has some pay changes going on too? I don't know. Maybe we will try to keep it updated and repost as the landscape changes.
Last edited by Skyler02; 02-18-2016 at 06:29 AM.
#167
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,934
Likes: 0
From: EMB 145 CPT
The sign on bonus that graph shows for Skywest is only for pilots with a type rating. Xjt has the same deal. And as of yesterday, the xjt rates are now 37, 38, and 38.
#169
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 304
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Thanks Nevets. I'll update the graph. Not sure if I should include or not include the Skywest and Express Jet bonus then. I also heard GoJet pay increases are on the table? I don't know. I'll just make updates as I learn of them and maybe I'll post it again with changes periodically.
#170
THERE WILL NEVER BE A SHORTAGE FOR THE TOP AIRLINES PERIOD
Let's say you have ONE airline that pays $1m/year. It won't have trouble filling it's seats. But, our shortage is systemic. There are not enough new pilot starts to replace the MASSIVE amounts of baby boomers that are retiring. Also, there is world-wide increase in passenger seat-miles.
So, if you don't pay $1m, then you will be suffering. So lets say DAL/AA/UAL/FedEx/UPS/Alaska/Hawaiian all pay $1m. There won't be enough pilots.
You think, the high pay will attract more students. Unfortunately, high pay in the future doesn't pay for training TODAY. Training costs are skyrocketing, compared to the typical median income US family, because the rich are getting richer and richer, and the rest of us are getting poorer.
You CANNOT get a $60K bank loan to flight train today, no matter how much you want to. It doesn't matter what the salaries are, if no one can afford the training costs.
Solutions:
Short Term:
Some entity, other than banks, loans money to cover training costs...the airlines, the government...someone.
Electric trainers become widespread, thus reducing the cost of the aircraft by about 50%...that will solve some of the problem.
Some entity, other than the pilots, pays for their training. DAL, for one, is planning on Ab-initio training.
Hire foreign pilots. There aren't anywhere near enough, right now.
Something has to be done FAST! It probably won't happen, so the age will have to be raised to cover the gap until the flight training numbers get caught up with retirements.
Long Term:
See the above about guaranteeing loans, or ab-initio.
Foreign pilots WOULD work, as at some point, countries like China can get their infrastucture set up to train large numbers of pilots.
More allowed use of Sims by the FAA to cover the majority of flight training would also help.
Longer Term:
Going to single pilot airliners would help.
Going to to other forms of transport, like maglev trains or hyperloops, would help a lot.
Longest Term:
Going to a system where we don't move our physical bodies to interact in real-time 3D, with sight, sound, hearing, taste, touch would help.
Going to something like matter transporters (like Star Treck) would solve most, if not all of the problems. Freight probably would still be too expensive to move in this manner.
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