Worsening Pilot Shortage
06-10-2014, 11:16 AM
#41
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Joined APC: Aug 2010
Position: Right Seat Spouse
Posts: 452
Originally Posted by bedrock
I hate to say this, but don't pin your hopes on these forecasts. We will have another stock crash before that time OR we will sink into another great depression OR well will have a big war, OR all of the above. All the countries of the world are now embracing money printing. Europe, Japan; even China is getting into the housing stimulus act.
The original problems of massive debt, based on murky derivatives have not gone away. Inflating a bubble at home, when too many middle class jobs are gone, isn't working. If people don't have decent jobs, they aren't going to buy houses. They are letting anyone buy a car now, just to keep some big ticket items going. Most of the homes have been bought up by huge investment houses which turn them into rentals. The stock market has gone up 190% since 2009, does anyone really believe that can continue??
More money printing will stoke inflation of commodities again and oil will go thru the roof. Stopping money printing will send the economy into a tailspin. This lukewarm economy won't last.
The original problems of massive debt, based on murky derivatives have not gone away. Inflating a bubble at home, when too many middle class jobs are gone, isn't working. If people don't have decent jobs, they aren't going to buy houses. They are letting anyone buy a car now, just to keep some big ticket items going. Most of the homes have been bought up by huge investment houses which turn them into rentals. The stock market has gone up 190% since 2009, does anyone really believe that can continue??
More money printing will stoke inflation of commodities again and oil will go thru the roof. Stopping money printing will send the economy into a tailspin. This lukewarm economy won't last.
06-10-2014, 11:40 AM
#43
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by deftone
My FBO school is packed with new students in the last few months. Instructors flying 8am-8pm, often cant catch a lunch break. A big difference from last year. Maybe all these stories are having the desired effect of attracting fresh meat to the industry.
It helps that we are on the doorstep of IAH... easy to get SJS
It helps that we are on the doorstep of IAH... easy to get SJS
Granted I am just one person, and the FAA's 2013 data shows a decrease in student, private, and commercial original issuances...better update my signature line. I bet the numbers bounce back in the 2014 data. Nonetheless, I think the pilot shortage media blitz has caught a lot of attention.
06-10-2014, 11:54 AM
#44
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Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 977
Originally Posted by block30
Yeah, I don't work at a flight school anymore, but in the past two years the number of people I have met who are interested, starting, or finishing flight training has gone way up.
Granted I am just one person, and the FAA's 2013 data shows a decrease in student, private, and commercial original issuances...better update my signature line. I bet the numbers bounce back in the 2014 data. Nonetheless, I think the pilot shortage media blitz has caught a lot of attention.
Granted I am just one person, and the FAA's 2013 data shows a decrease in student, private, and commercial original issuances...better update my signature line. I bet the numbers bounce back in the 2014 data. Nonetheless, I think the pilot shortage media blitz has caught a lot of attention.
The more NEW people with no prior 121 experience you can entice into an RJ class, the less pressure you have to increase wages/contract terms/etc..
In the end, hyped-up pilot shortages make money for flight schools, airlines, and people like Kit Darby--the only people pilot shortages don't benefit in the aviation system is, well, PILOTS!
06-10-2014, 12:20 PM
#45
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Posts: 781
Originally Posted by flapshalfspeed
From the RAA's perspective, a PR/media blitz about a pilot shortage that inspires noobs to shell out 80K for flight training costs wayyyyyyyyy less than paying for those noobs' training.
The more NEW people with no prior 121 experience you can entice into an RJ class, the less pressure you have to increase wages/contract terms/etc..
In the end, hyped-up pilot shortages make money for flight schools, airlines, and people like Kit Darby--the only people pilot shortages don't benefit in the aviation system is, well, PILOTS!
The more NEW people with no prior 121 experience you can entice into an RJ class, the less pressure you have to increase wages/contract terms/etc..
In the end, hyped-up pilot shortages make money for flight schools, airlines, and people like Kit Darby--the only people pilot shortages don't benefit in the aviation system is, well, PILOTS!
06-10-2014, 12:21 PM
#46
Working weekends
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Posts: 2,384
Originally Posted by pagey
Even if there is no change in available jobs(growth) there will still be opportunity for pretty much every pilot at a regional right now in the next 10 years.
Fact is though, even if there are no NEW jobs available it will still call for NEW pilots due to retirements. So.....That little chart says that there are ~100,000 jobs right now. There are ~20,000 retirements in the next 10 years. So to even keep the jobs at 100k you need new pilots coming in to fill the void. That is where there shortage comes from. That 100k is not just 121 either. There percentage of turnover there will be in 121 is much higher than 20%.
There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen.
Not really.
Fact is though, even if there are no NEW jobs available it will still call for NEW pilots due to retirements. So.....That little chart says that there are ~100,000 jobs right now. There are ~20,000 retirements in the next 10 years. So to even keep the jobs at 100k you need new pilots coming in to fill the void. That is where there shortage comes from. That 100k is not just 121 either. There percentage of turnover there will be in 121 is much higher than 20%.
There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen.
Not really.
"Growth" is not the opposite of "shortage" in the context of pilot hiring. "Shortage" for this situation, is akin to (exactly or similar concept --->) :
Reduced number of / Lacking sufficient qualified applicants/resumes/candidates for the sought after, well paid, major airline/freight/corporate jobs.
There will likely be a shortage at the regionals, yes, due to ATP requirements and their own aging population. Yes. But most of us are talking the cockpits below, of which I believe there will be NO SHORTAGE of qualified applicants/resumes for those jobs:
No Shortage of Qualified Applicants, ever
UAL/AAL/DAL/SWA/JBLU type carriers
Corporate departments such as Exxon-Mobil, Johnson and Johnson, Union Pacific, Microsoft which operate G-5, Global Express level equipment with great pay and benefits and are unlikely to disappear overnight.
FDX/UPS
Yes, a possible shortage of qualified applicants (but even that is in question)
ACME Flight school C-152 job
Shuttle Everywhere RJ FO job
Flying local beer distributor's C-90
The "pilot shortage" camp is lumped everything into one general pot. Pilot shortage ? Yes, maybe, at the places I outlined. However since the END CAREER GOAL for most is at the places I outlined, then that is all that matters.
And again, at those places, no shortage.
My opinion....
06-10-2014, 12:35 PM
#47
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Posts: 6,056
Originally Posted by pagey
...
There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen...
There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen...
To the contrary, we know that while there will still be ~100k jobs for all comm/airline pilots around 2022, we also know from FAA data that ~140k "active" (not sure what that really means, but) ATPs are there to be had (see table), and the supply is fairly constant as well (see chart). A genuine, deep pilot shortage does not exist and probably will not exist in our lifetimes. The current problem is one of low pay- raise the pay and people will come back to the job, and new pilots will be created.
06-10-2014, 01:22 PM
#48
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Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: Left
Posts: 1,809
Originally Posted by satpak77
What you posted, highlighted by me in red, is the problem.
"Growth" is not the opposite of "shortage" in the context of pilot hiring. "Shortage" for this situation, is akin to (exactly or similar concept --->) :
Reduced number of / Lacking sufficient qualified applicants/resumes/candidates for the sought after, well paid, major airline/freight/corporate jobs.
There will likely be a shortage at the regionals, yes, due to ATP requirements and their own aging population. Yes. But most of us are talking the cockpits below, of which I believe there will be NO SHORTAGE of qualified applicants/resumes for those jobs:
No Shortage of Qualified Applicants, ever
UAL/AAL/DAL/SWA/JBLU type carriers
Corporate departments such as Exxon-Mobil, Johnson and Johnson, Union Pacific, Microsoft which operate G-5, Global Express level equipment with great pay and benefits and are unlikely to disappear overnight.
FDX/UPS
Yes, a possible shortage of qualified applicants (but even that is in question)
ACME Flight school C-152 job
Shuttle Everywhere RJ FO job
Flying local beer distributor's C-90
The "pilot shortage" camp is lumped everything into one general pot. Pilot shortage ? Yes, maybe, at the places I outlined. However since the END CAREER GOAL for most is at the places I outlined, then that is all that matters.
And again, at those places, no shortage.
My opinion....
"Growth" is not the opposite of "shortage" in the context of pilot hiring. "Shortage" for this situation, is akin to (exactly or similar concept --->) :
Reduced number of / Lacking sufficient qualified applicants/resumes/candidates for the sought after, well paid, major airline/freight/corporate jobs.
There will likely be a shortage at the regionals, yes, due to ATP requirements and their own aging population. Yes. But most of us are talking the cockpits below, of which I believe there will be NO SHORTAGE of qualified applicants/resumes for those jobs:
No Shortage of Qualified Applicants, ever
UAL/AAL/DAL/SWA/JBLU type carriers
Corporate departments such as Exxon-Mobil, Johnson and Johnson, Union Pacific, Microsoft which operate G-5, Global Express level equipment with great pay and benefits and are unlikely to disappear overnight.
FDX/UPS
Yes, a possible shortage of qualified applicants (but even that is in question)
ACME Flight school C-152 job
Shuttle Everywhere RJ FO job
Flying local beer distributor's C-90
The "pilot shortage" camp is lumped everything into one general pot. Pilot shortage ? Yes, maybe, at the places I outlined. However since the END CAREER GOAL for most is at the places I outlined, then that is all that matters.
And again, at those places, no shortage.
My opinion....
If there is a shortage at that level eventually there must be a shortage at the next.
It won't be 2015 but once all the hirable regional pilots are gone where does the next batch of major pilots come from in say 2025?
Generally speaking right now legacy jobs are coming from mil and regionals. For the most part they want 121 experience. Your run of the mill career CFI or 135 guy flying a CJ3, or a C90, or a pilatus doesn't really get looked at without a strong connection inside, a racial card, or maybe an internship. Of course there are exceptions to this rule but 9 out of 10 are mil/regional.
As the regionals are depleted and do not get backfilled those pilots(who are perfectly capable of doing the job) will now have a shot that they would never have had in 2005.
We will probably never see a legacy airline start canceling flights or parking acft because they cannot put bodies in the seats but this "shortage" will open doors for many that were previously locked tight.
06-10-2014, 01:32 PM
#49
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Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: Left
Posts: 1,809
Originally Posted by Cubdriver
No, but claiming there is a shortage now or soon is not supported by anything very good.
To the contrary, we know that while there will still be ~100k jobs for all comm/airline pilots around 2022, we also know from FAA data that ~140k "active" (not sure what that really means, but) ATPs are there to be had (see table), and the supply is fairly constant as well (see chart). A genuine, deep pilot shortage does not exist and probably will not exist in our lifetimes. The current problem is one of low pay- raise the pay and people will come back to the job, and new pilots will be created.
To the contrary, we know that while there will still be ~100k jobs for all comm/airline pilots around 2022, we also know from FAA data that ~140k "active" (not sure what that really means, but) ATPs are there to be had (see table), and the supply is fairly constant as well (see chart). A genuine, deep pilot shortage does not exist and probably will not exist in our lifetimes. The current problem is one of low pay- raise the pay and people will come back to the job, and new pilots will be created.
But.....This chart still proves nothing. What does "active" mean?
How many of those pilots are foreign? How many have no medical? How many have great corporate jobs that they'll never leave? How many just plain have no interest in flying for an airline? How many are DEAD?
In retort I have nothing to prove that there WILL be a shortage but if it was as simple as just raising the pay why hasn't it happened? Surely it is cheaper to pay your pilots a little more than it is to park 50 jets? Raising the pay would help no doubt but it won't solve this situation overnight. The airlines are behind the curve.
Why is Delta, the supposed "cream of the crop", offering things like their garbage EtD program with less than a Delta interview? They know they need to fill those 2 front seats.
Pay is one of the causes for sure, but it's also not the magic bullet to make this thing go away.
06-10-2014, 01:41 PM
#50
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Position: Left Seat
Posts: 2,384
Originally Posted by pagey
Those "undesirables" you mentioned are basically where major airline pilots are bred.
If there is a shortage at that level eventually there must be a shortage at the next.
It won't be 2015 but once all the hirable regional pilots are gone where does the next batch of major pilots come from in say 2025?
Generally speaking right now legacy jobs are coming from mil and regionals. For the most part they want 121 experience. Your run of the mill career CFI or 135 guy flying a CJ3, or a C90, or a pilatus doesn't really get looked at without a strong connection inside, a racial card, or maybe an internship. Of course there are exceptions to this rule but 9 out of 10 are mil/regional.
As the regionals are depleted and do not get backfilled those pilots(who are perfectly capable of doing the job) will now have a shot that they would never have had in 2005.
We will probably never see a legacy airline start canceling flights or parking acft because they cannot put bodies in the seats but this "shortage" will open doors for many that were previously locked tight.
If there is a shortage at that level eventually there must be a shortage at the next.
It won't be 2015 but once all the hirable regional pilots are gone where does the next batch of major pilots come from in say 2025?
Generally speaking right now legacy jobs are coming from mil and regionals. For the most part they want 121 experience. Your run of the mill career CFI or 135 guy flying a CJ3, or a C90, or a pilatus doesn't really get looked at without a strong connection inside, a racial card, or maybe an internship. Of course there are exceptions to this rule but 9 out of 10 are mil/regional.
As the regionals are depleted and do not get backfilled those pilots(who are perfectly capable of doing the job) will now have a shot that they would never have had in 2005.
We will probably never see a legacy airline start canceling flights or parking acft because they cannot put bodies in the seats but this "shortage" will open doors for many that were previously locked tight.
1. Umpteen number of existing regional companies, now, all with experienced dudes ready to move to legacies.
2. PLENTY of military guys, post-two wars, with masters+ degrees, international flight time, often in heavy C-17/KC-10/etc equipment, to include fighter guys who always get looked at.
I will also throw an ADDITIONAL item into this: With the recent "support our troops" and "support our returning veterans" initiatives in place, either officially or practiced unofficially, it is VERY LIKELY that the regional candidates will ONLY be looked at when the military pool is dry/reduced.
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