Worsening Pilot Shortage
#531
The FTEs are ALL employees, so the six carriers that reported increases are total increases for ALL employees...pilots, gate agents, mechanics, etc.
It is interesting that a number of carriers reported decreases.
To see how the pilot shortage is progressing, we need to see numbers for pilots only...not in this report.
It is interesting that a number of carriers reported decreases.
To see how the pilot shortage is progressing, we need to see numbers for pilots only...not in this report.
#532
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Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,023
One interesting note from the latest FAA Forecast was that Regional RPMs decreased .7% on domestic routes and decreased 22.2% on international routes. Yet they are forecasting growth in 2016 of .7% domestically and .7% internationally. IMO they don't know what to do with their forecasts for the regional sector. I'm sure their forecast regression analysis came up with .7% for this year but seems coincidental to me. It will be interesting to see next year. I'm betting there is another loss. For the 2015-2035 forecast, the FAA forecast a 3.4% growth in domestic RPMs. I could not find a similar statistic for the international regime for regional carriers. There is always a variance that is possible with forecasting and I could not find that in the report but it would seem to me a deviation of 4.1% is quite large. Also, while it is no direct indicator of supply of pilots, I do believe it can be used indirectly as if the supply shrinks so to should RPMs.
FAA Forecast 2016-2036 Fact Sheet:
https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets...m?newsId=20136
FAA Forecast 2015-2035 (Reference Page 49-50, specifically):
https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...port_Final.pdf
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FAA Forecast 2016-2036 Fact Sheet:
https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets...m?newsId=20136
FAA Forecast 2015-2035 (Reference Page 49-50, specifically):
https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...port_Final.pdf
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#533
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Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 472
True, but I assume that total FTE is somewhat proportional to flight crews. While this may not be hard proof of a pilot shortage, it certainly gives you an indication of who is able to attract talent and presumable can grow.
#535
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Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 504
#536
What about the ATP's that get another job outside aviation, do corporate, become "your friend" from the FAA, fail a medical, have a DUI or are un-hirable? I'm not going to crunch numbers, but things look better than the lost decade at the very least. Also... 20 years is a lot of speculation. We'll likely all have flying cars and teleport machines by then anyway.
#537
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Joined APC: Sep 2015
Posts: 499
So we should be worried about less than 1000 new ATPs a year for 20 years while retirements at any SINGLE airline will be at or just under 1000 a year, for many years, real soon? I may have missed the sarcasm.
#538
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Joined APC: Jan 2009
Posts: 381
1300 X 12 pilots = 15,600 pilots
13000 - 15600 = (2600)
Some people get an ATP but still fly as a private pilot, others go into corporate aviation, others get an ATP an go back to their home country.
#540
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,165
Using the numbers for 50 to 76 seaters, 3 76 seaters have the same number of FTEs as 4 50 seaters. If I wanted to achieve a 2% growth in FTEs, 13 76 seaters replacing 17 50 seaters would accomplish 2% FTE growth. That's a 23.5% loss in pilot FTEs offset by a 53% increase in FA FTEs.
FTEs are worthless for determining pilot growth/shrinkage.
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