Originally Posted by
Cubdriver
No, but claiming there is a shortage now or soon is not supported by anything very good.
To the contrary, we know that while there will still be ~100k jobs for all comm/airline pilots around 2022, we also know from FAA data that ~140k "active" (not sure what that really means, but) ATPs are there to be had (see table), and the supply is fairly constant as well (see chart). A genuine, deep pilot shortage does not exist and probably will not exist in our lifetimes. The current problem is one of low pay- raise the pay and people will come back to the job, and new pilots will be created.
Again, I'm not saying "you're an idiot, there's a shortage!"
But.....This chart still proves nothing. What does "active" mean?
How many of those pilots are foreign? How many have no medical? How many have great corporate jobs that they'll never leave? How many just plain have no interest in flying for an airline? How many are DEAD?
In retort I have nothing to prove that there WILL be a shortage but if it was as simple as just raising the pay why hasn't it happened? Surely it is cheaper to pay your pilots a little more than it is to park 50 jets? Raising the pay would help no doubt but it won't solve this situation overnight. The airlines are behind the curve.
Why is Delta, the supposed "cream of the crop", offering things like their garbage EtD program with less than a Delta interview? They know they need to fill those 2 front seats.
Pay is one of the causes for sure, but it's also not the magic bullet to make this thing go away.