You could always ask to be put in a later ERJ class and just wait a little longer, that way it's a sure thing. Otherwise, maybe a 20% chance. We had two guys who managed it in our class, one ERJ hire had personal issues come up and dropped out of class, I forget what happened with the other guy (no-show?). So the first two CRJ guys to volunteer got the slots.

In regards to your commute, it's worth mentioning that there's a rumor going around that Mesa will get an AA contract for Dallas. It seems legitimate. Who knows how long it might take or which plane they'll put there, though.