Don't have the numbers I crunched overall from company graphs but if I remember correctly about 275 Captains excess now but 200 openings, mainly in ORD, LAX, and SFO. Factor in retirements over next year and that 75 delta is eaten up. Numbers a little lower for FOs.

The X factor is IAD guppy base. If that study ever ends, and base opens huge game changer. As a bottom 100 guy in IAH I am not sweating it. But not moving to Houston quite yet. Last bid 25 above me in IAH took something elsewhere. Another bid like that and it will happen again. On the captain side they are already virtually near 500 already due to LTA and soon to retire captains using their sick time while they can. If somebody is moving down here PM me for neighborhood gouge-it is not just Woodlands-and welcome to Texas! But how many folks from say Denver are pulling their kids out if school to move or will sign up for one of the worse commutes in system.

It is gonna suck for somebody and maybe me. But strongly suspect not all that bad overall and what can I do about it? So just watch and wait. And enjoy life. If you come down to Texas first one is on me.