Originally Posted by
Scoop
I agree with your logic above but remember those are the mandatory retirement numbers - a lot of guys never make it to 65.
We could easily add a 5% attrition rate to your numbers above. Still not 50% but probably closer to 40% than 33%.
Also I think it is safe to assume that the number of guys who don't make it to 65 will be larger than the number who did not make it to 60. Hell, 5 more years for things to go wrong.
Scoop
yes but if we early out guys 2-3 years early that only effects the last 2-3 years in the 10yr window. go forward a couple years and those guys are part of the mandatory anyway. not much effect imo....just saying. sliding a few guys early only slides the window and wont change the total for the next 30....so in effect very short term diff. nothing in the long run
the good part is steady hiring. shortage no. steady yes. nothing like what we have had for the last decade. so in perspective it is awesome compared to what we are use to for the last ten years.