Originally Posted by
deltajuliet
It's one of those things that's just impossible to know. Educated guesses are possible though. The main problem is we don't know how much flying we'll get in the near future, the distant future, or if there will be another 9/11. Attrition rates aren't high now, and we can assume they'll pick up some, but people will argue how much and when.
I think people being hired the second half of 2014 will see an upgrade time of 1.5-3 years. It depends if we get more planes, and there have been rumors amounting to a net gain of ~50 in the next year. But rumors are rumors.
I don't know if the 1.5 year upgrade is sustainable, but I think 2.5 years could be.
All of the above points are spot on.
And always keep in mind that it is in management's best interest to paint the most optimistic light possible for new hires. New hires are the link between the street and the line, and are more likely to have contacts who are still finishing up flight school/college (high yield recruiting targets). It is imperative for management to convince people sitting in class that everything is wonderful and that everyone will upgrade.