Aviation career decisions should be made with a probabilistic mindset.

Contract terms, payrates, and domiciles at a particular carrier cannot be viewed as "fixed." They must be viewed in context of the probability they will continue at those existing levels.

A carrier full of 50-seaters with a top-heavy seniority list, top notch payrates, and top-notch contract terms has a very high probability of losing airplanes, flying and/or entering a sham bankruptcy to weasel out of contract provisions/payrates. A shiny contract with great payrates means nothing if the probability of losing it all in the next few years is very high.

Mesa's contract/terms can't go any lower. Our average seniority on property is dropping like a rock as we staff up for the EJets.

At the same time, Mesa is probably entering the plateau phase of all of this growth, and without more growth or attrition, the probability of a quick upgrade is quickly declining, and I think we'll eventually see some people jumping ship for Compass/PSA from the bottom of the list as we near the end of our current growth spurt.

Humans are rational actors--when the probability of upgrade and/or being based in one's hometown, in combination with our current contract/pay starts to be lower than that package at other carriers, we'll lose pilots and/or fail to fill classes. Unfortunately, that reality will probably sink in well after we're fully staffed for the near-term future.

Given all of that, without further growth or unless no one shows up to our last few classes this year, I don't see us getting a new contract anytime soon. The company simply has no reason to agree to anything right now.