Thread: 3.75:1 Question
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Old 06-05-2007 | 04:20 AM
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2cylinderdriver
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Originally Posted by TonyC



Take a look through your bid pack and I think you'll find more TAFB trips than you might imagine.




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That is correct...today. As redeye said, this will change. On the international side they will be moving towards hard time trips that are shorter in duration. If you take a look at ANC you can see what they are doing. The pairings are being built in the 25-30 CH range. This does a couple things other than ruin commuting. Many of the trips in the 12-40 hour range pay hard time and they are in effect giving you your longer layover in base off the clock. MEM is heading this way to, all you need to look at is the way trips are changing.

Unfortunately MEM has not seen what they can do to affect the Domestic flights to avoid 3.75:1. Again, Redeye is correct, saying the current form of pairing design for week long hub turns will be changed. Why should they pay 41 minutes extra per day on a IND hub turn trip vs. the guy hub turning MEM ? This is what they are thinking and will start to devour those trips by attacking city purity. I would guess you will see stuff like this:

Day 1 MEM-OAK
day 2 OAK-IND-ORD
day 3 ORD-IND-DTW
day 3 DTW-MEM

hub turn out of MEM into another similar trip to reset the trip rig clock.

I did not do the actual calculation of what this would pay, this is just a hypothetical idea of what I think they will do to avoid TAFB domestically.

There are going to be international and domestic trips that pay more, especially ones that are affected by block capture over 8 hours. We have not seen the new designs to affect this, it might make some very senior trips, MEM-NRT d/h KIX(SHORT layovers) KIX-MEM and pay hard time like the RFO trips we see now. That way all the longer intl trips through Asia will come through ANC and avoid flights over 8 hours.

Bottom line is we need to start paying attention to more than disputed pairings because for every disputed pairing we see there are at least 10 others just as bad that make it into the bid lines. The DP process is not a pure process and is extremely tainted by the Company. If you are flying something that smells bad it probably is, make the right call when necessary.

Sorry for the long post.
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