Originally Posted by
aa73
Kingairip,
No, the costs are not really known per se. All they really know is that we will get an average of Delta/united, and even that's up in the air depending on what they sign next year.
There's that uncertainty, for starters.
Then there's the uncertainty of what the arbitrator will hand out for the rest of the cost neutral stuff. Some might be cost neutral, some might not. Nobody knows for sure.
All of that uncertainty will do wonders for the operation, catch my drift? That right there will make Wall Street nervous, and that does not bode well for management in many, many ways.
Now you take that and compare it to a contract where EVERYTHING is known, for a fixed amount of time?
To me the choice is obvious.
And furthermore... Parker has no clue as to what "the wheels coming off the operation" means. He has not experienced it at USAir/America west. The injunction against USAPA was a mere fraction of what happened here. If he wanted a taste, he should have been here in September 2012... and that will be a picnic compared to what will happen absent an ILC coming soon.
Okay. Granted there may be a little bit of uncertainty with regards to the pay rates in 2016. But, if history is any indication, the Delta group won't have their rates in place by Jan 1 of that year. Negotiations usually get dragged out. Now, Anderson might be motivated to slap AA with higher costs, but that will be his decisions with numerous other factors that we can't possibly fathom. In any case, even if they do get new rates by then, our average will be dragged down by the United anchor who's rates aren't going anywhere. Whatever Delta gets, we're guaranteed to get less.
I'm not sure what you mean here. "Then there's the uncertainty of what the arbitrator will hand out for the rest of the cost neutral stuff. Some might be cost neutral, some might not. Nobody knows for sure." The overall cost, per the terms of the arbitration, has to be neutral compared to the MTA. In other words, we're not getting an additional penny from the company regardless of how the pie is sliced.
As for September 2012, I don't know how hard your prior management pushed back or how competent they were at it. This management team, however, along with getting an injunction slapped on the group, put management pilots in the control towers to monitor each aircraft's movement as a big brother eye-in-the-sky. Any perceived slowdowns and the captain was getting called in. I love what you did in 2012, but you weren't fighting these guys.
FWIW, I hope you're right. I hope the tiger has changed his stripes and gives us something we can agree on. If he does, I'll be pleasantly surprised. But, realistically speaking...I don't see it.