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Old 11-19-2014 | 07:16 AM
  #507  
eaglefly
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Originally Posted by Hueypilot
Good luck staffing all those RJs with each major hiring upwards of 1,000 pilots per airline per year. And yes, the "new, improved" amenable date is one year difference. But talking to some guys they think it's a decade. Not that I'm advocating APA give that up...but, just sayin'.
What does this legacy have now ?

I think it's something like about 600 aircraft, 2/3's of which are obsolete 50-seaters or smaller. With legacy retirements, LCC's loss of pilots to other non-regional carriers and their expansions, the big freight carriers like FedEx and UPS hiring, excellent corporate jobs, etc., the regionals are screwed.

I predict he'll still be able to put perhaps half the current number of RJ's in feed positions in the 64-76-seat range. I think the scheme is to attract pilots to AA (as if this place will be all that attractive compared to some of the others) is to use Eagle as the carrot. Parker at this very moment is ratcheting compensation DOWN there, so it's ability to attract pilots will only get worse on that basis. Once a cradle-to-grave scheme is unleashed, Delta and UAL will match that, getting the lions share of the few pilots out there in the pipeline (which is currently virtually a dustbowl). That pipeline takes YEARS to develop to meet future demand. No, I'm convinced the RJ candle has effectively burned out and as we speak mainline is already beginning to recapture previously lost flying to regionals. It's ironic, but the ones who snuffed out that candle are guys like Parker. Anderson and UAL execs see the future, but Parker puts a proposal in their opener asking for hundreds MORE RJ's

Jesus, if people can't see that play for what it is, they truly are lost and quite frankly, Parker and Glass are correct in where pilots weaknesses lie and there inability to collectively tie there own shoes. I think of a cat batting around a stuffed mouse toy. This may sound nuts, but honestly, I'd think we'd be better off giving him his worthless scope RJ proposal back and keeping all the work rule changes he wants. Most pilots now (well, the few that are in the pipeline) know that a regional is just a place to spend 6 months or a year or so and move on and even with the promise of a mainline job (from people KNOWN for reneging on promises and taking advantage), they'll have no loyalty. The first legacy, LCC, quality cargo job that appears, they're gone. A small percentage might stay for the elusive carrot, but most will bail for something else.

Of the 3 legacies, AA clearly will be the least desirable (to say nothing of Eagle) and will have the highest percentage of bailouts further weakening AA against its competitors and most will see Eagle as a revolving door to get some turbine time and then split. Essentially, it will be a money losing flight school for the benefit of the competition. Would you rather work for an Anderson or a Parker ?

Most will not get too cozy at Eagle and will think long-term on where they want to shoot craps for a career. When you have little invested it's much easier to pull the ejection handle. It's going to be a VERY interesting landscape here and at the other legacies in the approaching years and I think poor Doug just burned any bridge he might need here with most pilots in the future. Then there's the product itself...........

Like I said, ultimately I think there WILL be a price to pay for all this, it's just not evident yet and may even take years. I think that price WILL show up eventually though and we all lose because of that Doug included. Parker has played this situation just as poorly as Horton played his. I guess it's just their way ?

Last edited by eaglefly; 11-19-2014 at 07:55 AM.
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