Originally Posted by
Cubdriver
Pure speculation, but I think the future at regional is for slightly higher salaries for a number of years to bring some of the marginally interested pilots out of the woodwork. Gradually they'll raise pay and working conditions as we are already seeing at Lakes, CommutAir and a few others. They are extremely reluctant to dramatically raise pay because once that happens it is impossible to put the cat back in the bag. We'll see piddling raises for years to keep the marginal people coming. Airlines are very good at chiseling costs and will not stop doing that any time soon but I doubt we'll see any of them fold due to lack of pilots.
So, say 15% more (
slightly higher salaries) for new-hires will bring all kinds of people out of the woodwork ?
For most new-hires (the shortage position), that's perhaps an extra $4000/year or $77/week. Is that going to draw people making $60-150K in other fields to "realize their dream" ?
How about high-school seniors who need to convince mom and dad another $50-60K ABIOVE normal college costs is worth it ?
I STRONGLY doubt that will help.
How about a $50,000 minimum starting salary ?
OK, but now you've got costs that can't be supported by the aircrafts ability to generate enough profit and they're screwed on the other end. At that point, it makes more sense to return that flying to mainline, where more seat revenue is available to offset costs. Nope, they've flown themselves up a canyon and (like it or not) have insufficient power to fly themselves out. All they can do now is shuffle pieces around and ride the attrition until that doesn't work either (and that's approaching very FAST). Then, they can only burn what little furniture is left to heat the house until it's time to abandon the house.
Hey,.........just like virtually everything in this world, the regionals also had a limited life-span (heck, they even use "disposable" jets) and it couldn't last like that forever. It's the ultimate irony that the very thing that gave regionals their viability and popularity (low labor costs) will be the very thing that ultimately results in their demise because no one wants to make such a bad financial and emotional investment in it anymore.
Poor, poor executives. What are they to do ?
