You pilot shortage guys need to wake up. Where it matters (the majors and quality corporate jobs) there is NO shortage and NEVER WILL BE a shortage.

You could argue "well, the shortage at the regionals will catch up to the majors" but observe that hiring, and the economy is cyclical. Today, 2014, we are seeing "ramped up hiring" (AAL, DAL, UAL) BUT it is NOTHING like the mid-90's. Todays "ramped up hiring" is a joke. FedEx is "hiring" by the way. Jump for joy and high-five your Kit Darby buddies. "Hiring" meaning they are hiring like 10 dudes in the next 12 months.

Once the economy slows down (as it always does), hiring will slow. Hiring is basically because of two things: 1) Expansion at a carrier and/or 2) Replacement of bodies

Slowing economy, expansion slows or stops. Replacement of bodies due to medical outs, retirements, etc is easier obtained via already existing flow-thrus and the current resume stack. In my opinion, the real "dang we need to hire ! hire now !" fire alarm is activiated when a carrier decides it needs to add XXX routes with YYY more planes, to compete with a competitor who is already doing the same. So the flow-thru agreements with so many bodies agreed to per month or per cycle or per new hire class etc, may not satisfy that requirement.

"Yes but age 65 they will need pilots". Age 65 will impact AAL mostly, not so much SWA, JBLU, or even UAL. Probably FDX/UPS. DAL some.

Observe that one carrier's expansion can affect the same carrier's regional, albeit negatively. If AAL decides that due to ramped up PAX at MAF, they will pull 3 RJ flights and add 2 737 flights, then where did those RJ's go ? Kileen ? I doubt it.

Age 65 in mind, if the majors hire a bunch of 50 year old dudes with extensive experience (they are out there), they just band-aided their age 65 problem for 10+ years.

You need to keep in mind that basically the RJ's even if the major brand name is slapped on the fuselage, is competing with the majors in some form or fashion.

Good Luck