Originally Posted by
Cubdriver
Large companies absolutely can use shrinkage as a survival tactic instead of maintaining heavy payrolls. All the bizjet manufacturers in Wichita downsized after the Recession in 2009, Cessna alone laid off 8,000 who never returned. My point was they will only raise them in drips and drabs as the market gins up support. There will not be a genuine, deep pilot shortage in the next 20 years and there isn't really one now either since the pilots already exist.
This is the airline industry, airplanes are extremely expensive, and if they aren't flying even more expensive. They require personnel that have extended training and experience requirements. Shrinking when there are leasing contracts and since the margins aren't that large, there is a requirement for volume to make any significant profits. The ability to view pilot certificate ages and demographics by unions means that the pilot situation is not only predictable but easily to figure out if you want to. Airman Data Base for those without union access. The pilot situation has consequences far beyond the average non-aviation business, so we have that going for us.