Originally Posted by
RB211
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilottim79
I think this is interesting. I wonder if the window has closed if it was every really open for brand new hires. I mean 60 some airplanes and add 30 plus some, how many brand new hires are going to see upgrade fast without captains being hired or retired.
You had to be hired in 2013 for fast upgrade. The ship has sailed unless we get a lot more airplanes
While I agree with this to an extent I think you're also basing your 5 year upgrade time on the last 5 years too much. I see the upgrade time going back up to 2-3 years after the dust settles, given we get no new flying.
The reason the upgrade time was 8 years here, Republic, XJT, OO, etc was due to a multitude of factors:
9/11, age 65 rule, then the 2008 recession followed by no hiring at the majors.
Unless we see another one of the above factors, there will not be a stagnation in the left seat the next 3-5 years as we have seen the last 3-5 years.
With the hiring at the majors, LCCs and legacies to continue indefinitely, guys will continue to upgrade, get their turbine PIC and trickle out.