Originally Posted by
prior121
While I agree with this to an extent I think you're also basing your 5 year upgrade time on the last 5 years too much. I see the upgrade time going back up to 2-3 years after the dust settles, given we get no new flying.
The reason the upgrade time was 8 years here, Republic, XJT, OO, etc was due to a multitude of factors:
9/11, age 65 rule, then the 2008 recession followed by no hiring at the majors.
Unless we see another one of the above factors, there will not be a stagnation in the left seat the next 3-5 years as we have seen the last 3-5 years.
With the hiring at the majors, LCCs and legacies to continue indefinitely, guys will continue to upgrade, get their turbine PIC and trickle out.
I had a long response drafted that I lost that basically said the same thing as you. The only thing I would change is that there are no majors that require PIC time anymore. Hell, American only requires an ATP written to be done. That wasn't by accident they dropped that off their mins. We will see a lot more FOs going to majors/LCCs than we are now in the next 2 years. I don't think majors want high time old captains, and high time old captains don't want to go to majors. The trend seems to be that they want younger, moldable, insurable, and safe pilots who aren't set in their ways. Clearly PIC is not an insurance requirement for them anymore.
Get in, and GTFO. Don't chase upgrades. Keeps the whipsaw alive. Now when the majors add PIC time back in order to cause their feed to shuffle and chase upgrades again, I'll reconsider my stance. I don't see that happening with their attrition though.