Originally Posted by
Bzzt
PilotJ3 you've got an awfully optimistic outlook and I hope it works out for you but your numbers are questionable. When I was at Envoy I did a lot of number crunching. I was an early 11' hire and even with this increased flow my upgrade was ~2.5 years off when you take into account the shrinking fleet size. As for the flow I was calculating over 5 years optimistically.
Unless someone lives in Dallas I cannot make a rational argument for employment at Envoy. There are 11,000 apps at United, how many of those applicants only applied at United? My guess is not many. I think you have 12-13k unique apps total between the 3 mainlines. Once hiring is going full bore at all 3 + Southwest, FedEx, and UPS that resume stack is going to shrink quickly. A flow is a nice thing to have as a safety net, and I do believe Envoy's new flow will operate as advertised provided they're able to find new hires, however I don't think a flow should be high on the list of things to consider when seeking regional employment. Eaglefly is correct in saying that other regionals are working on flow deals with mainlines as well.
I would say let the recruitment department sell the airline, you should be focused on updating your app and getting out before your flow number ever comes close to getting called.
There are multiple factors that could derail the latest flow carrot from Envoy. Like it or not, Envoy is among the most risky of regionals right now because of its vulnerability. The latest round of concessions has made Envoy nothing but a house if cards entirely dependent upon a steady stream of new-hire pilots to replace those leaving for other carriers and at present some to AA. Even with that, Envoy will steadily shrink and the upgrade potential is weak. Many there who are more junior know this and how tenuous their situation is and thus unless Envoy gets that steady stream of pilots, their flow-thru plans are in serious jeopardy. Thus many are here to sell. In all likelihood, Envoy will fall far short in its recruiting efforts and thus the house of cards will fall. Combine that with AA implementing PBS and merging International and domestic divisions and significantly less pilots are needed which will likely slow or stop the flow. It has nothing to do with "9/11" claims, but is simply one of the "synergies" Parker has talked about repeatedly since he took over.
Hope is a good thing, maybe the best if things, but it should never get in the way if practical reality. For many at Envoy, it seems it has. Hopefully, those not there can better see the fields of cotton candy there because they aren't intoxicated by all the sugar fumes.