Originally Posted by
eaglefly
Last I heard, your MEC officers told the pilots they could expect Envoy to shrink to something like 110 aircraft or so. But hey, if pilots want to listen to some 4th year regional F/O who might be able to get a cub around the patch without crashing it as the yoda of Envoys flow and future, that's fine. Personally, it would be better for me if as many pilots come to Envoy as possible. AA needs feed to thrive and once we become overstaffed for awhile due to PBS and division consolidation and hiring stops (along with the flow), we'll have that many more long-term Envoy pilots to support our carrier. We NEED a stable group of pilots at Envoy. Now, it won't be as good for those that DID go to Envoy expecting unicorns, rainbows, blue skies and tailwinds and even a pony or two like your management and their chum J3 would have you believe, but it would be more pilots at Envoy and that's good for AA.
Envoy has a long and cherished history of suckering pilots to cockpits with flow promises and so why shouldn't the next generation take their place in continuing a new chapter in that classic fable, just as thousands before them did ?
MEC officers don't know the plan .. management doesn't even know the plan beyond a couple of years. It's always been that way.
I've been told so many "plans" over the years that never came true I can' t even remember them all. The only person I believe is myself.
People have poked fun at me about the flow through for 16 years.
Low an behold I will flow soon. The flow is real.. It is not a unicorn. If I was at a non flow airline I would be out there in a sea of thousands trying to get hired.
Yes it took me a lot longer than anyone thought but as has been said there were so many set backs from the lost decade. SARS, $150 a barrel oil, bank crisis , 911 and most importantly age 65. That set everyone back 5 years. Moving forward there will be more issues. Age 67 could come and who knows what else but these old guys can't fly forever. The next decade will be one of the best since the 1960s.
I think there is a decent chance wholly owns could be merged. If staffing gets tight enough they could be forced to make it all one airline. 100% flow from regional to majors. At that point non wholly owns would be locked out.
Having said that it will not be an overnight flow and a person starting today should certainly consider trying to get in at the beginning of the hiring boom. As long as you are a squared away pilot I would go for a fast upgrade. If you have some connections and/ or something a little extra on your resume it will certainly help. If you're a lower end C student from Bumfukle community college/and or bad interviewer you may want a little extra insurance going with a flow through.
A person needs to consider all angles. And one angle is:
Ok , I go to airline X with a 1-2 year upgrade. PSA has about doubled.. will that upgrade time be the same when I actually get to upgrade? Upgrade times are very unpredictable and the airline with the fastest upgrade may not be the one with the fastest in 3-4 years.
So it may take 3-4 years to upgrade at Envoy. In a perfect world where you upgrade somewhere else, and get hired at a major in 3-4 years you will have lost out if the PIC got you the job. On the other hand...
You may upgrade somewhere else faster and simply not get hired at a major as fast as you thought.
I don't think there is one right or wrong scenario here. Both are gambles but one has a bit of insurance built in.