Originally Posted by
rickair7777
This industry is INHERENTLY cyclical, always remember that. What goes up WILL come down. However in this case I think we have the makings of a longer-than-normal upswing....
- Good economy.
- Most airlines have recently cut costs.
- Lot's of old guys retiring at several majors (age 65 will slow this but not completely).
- Long-term expected growth in passengers.
- Fewer entry-level pilots due to training costs and reduced pay expectations at the majors.
As Saab mentioned this could all change overnight due to acts of war or acts of God.
I agree 100% with rickair. It will take longer for sure on the upswing, but eventually the retirements will start to slow down, the expansions will peak. I give it about 10 years before seeing the back end of the curve even with age 65....but then again, this is aviation, and you never know.