Saab and rickair are right. Hiring is not going to slow down anytime this decade. In fact it is only going to pick up more in the next 1-2 years as the legacy carriers begin to hire (American, United, Northwest, and US Air). There are close to 60,000 pilots at major airlines. About 30,000 work at those four carriers that have yet to begin hiring. So airlines which employee half of the major airline pilots have yet to hire. It is only going to pick up in the near future.

Saab is right in that airplane into building ---> bad for hiring! Same thing with any other terrorist attack on US soil.

As for retirements, the number of pilots due to retire (due to age 60) is pretty constant through 2012. My numbers include American, United, Delta, Continental, US Air, Southwest, FedEx, and UPS (These airlines employee about 45,000 pilots, or 75% of the major airline pilots). It is pretty constant at about 1,500 pilots a year through 2012. Then it increases at about 100 pilots a year through 2017 when about 2,300 pilots are due to retire.

When will the next downturn be? I have no idea. It will probably not be anytime in the next 5 years. After that, it is anyones guess!
See my "Pilot Shortage" thread for some more information.
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/sh...ad.php?t=12901