Originally Posted by
Redline165
So let me get this straight.... (this is all based on pilotless)
Say someone perfects the technology to have a of pilot-less 121 aircraft,
Then say someone also perfects the technology for the logistical requirements needed on the ground, in the air, space, ect...
Then you convince Boeing or Airbus to invest the multi billion dollars and years to develop a new aircraft,
Then after said company is done developing this aircraft and find somewhere to do the testing of the automation, (this is after they just make sure it can fly) because as previously stated additional ground aids are going to be necessary
Then they finally work out the kinks of getting the real kids to play nice in the sky and on the ground with the pretend kids,
Then you convince the FAA to approve it,
Then you convince congress to approve the billions of dollars to add all of this technology and training to the ATC system and Airports,
Then the company creates a TV show to convince the public they are safe and there is some chance people will fly on them,
Then you somehow convince an airline to buy a few of them....
Whats to stop the pilot groups from saying nope, were not flying in the sky with those things?
Could be way in left field, but i think its a long shot for quite a while. not saying the technology isn't around to make it reliable. But who knows... could be the next internet.
That's not the way it would be phased in, the updates would come first to existing aircraft in the form of a new type of predictive TCAS. The ATC system is then updated. All of this is going on while aircraft remain dual pilot. Then the autopilots on existing aircraft are updated to take advantage of the new TCAS/ATC system allowing them to go direct everywhere. When the system proves reliable, then the second pilot is eliminated because the workload is such that a second pilot isn't needed. In the event of pilot incapacitation, an FA could take over the controls, and be talked down, there is no need for all this redundancy as stated above.
Thus, single pilot will come out of automation required to deal with congested airspace, not because the airlines are eliminating pilots. Initially, you will have to add a third pilot to the ground to handle the transition to single pilot.