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07-01-2007 | 08:58 AM

#57

pilotrod

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Joined: Nov 2005

Posts: 45

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Quote:

Originally Posted by aerospacepilot

Exactly. Skyhigh likes to claim there are thousands of pilots "sidelined" who would come back should pay/benefits/qol increase. What I am saying is 70,000 ATP pilots will be inelegible to fly in the next 12 years. Not that there will be 70,000 retirements from airlines.

For airline retirement numbers, I added up some recent numbers, and there will be at least 20,000 pilots will retire from the “good” airlines over the next 10 years assuming age 60. (AA, UAL, DAL, CAL, US Air, FedEx, UPS, SWA). And that is not counting Northwest, ABX, Astar, Air Tran, Frontier, JetBlue, Alaska, Midwest, Spirit, ATA, and ALL the regional airlines. (Not saying these weren’t “good” airlines, I just don’t have the retirement numbers for them).

Regional airlines will try to keep their entry level pay as low as possible. Even when they need to recruit more pilots, they will not raise pay. It is far better to these regionals to use a temporary fix (such as signing bonuses). Raising first year pay will not just attract new pilots, but it would give a pay bump to pilots who are already at the airline (regionals don't want this). Signing bonuses can be rescinded as soon as the hiring pool gets fuller, or hiring slows down.
These are the steps I see regional airlines taking to get pilots:
1. Lowering minimums
2. Signing bonuses
3. Retention bonuses

Almost all regionals (except Skywest & Horizon) have lowered their minimums already. Expect them to only get lower in the coming future. Signing bonuses are happening at Mesa, Piedmont, and Republic. Expect these to catch on at more airlines in the near future. I think retention bonuses are the next logical step for airlines to keep pilots.

I went on a 3 hour flight landing at several usually busy GA airports today, and there just aren't as many people flying today as there were several years ago.

I have to agree. I retired from banking 5 years ago, spend a lot of time at the airport with my A36 bonanza. I have noticed a drastic decrease in general aviation traffic recently. Many pilots I know are selling their airplanes because of the increase in fuel prices. Just think how much the cost of building multi time has increased. A barron burns about 28 gallons per hour. Fuel has gone up an average of 2 dollars per gallon over the last few years. That is a $56 per hour increase in a barron, times 100 hours $5,600. Thats just the increase in cost of building 100 hours. If you think there is a shortage of civilian trained pilots now, just wait a few years. The airlines are going to have to start their own training programs if they want a steady supply of pilots in the future. I predict there won't even be enough 200 hour private pilots if they ever lowered the minimums that low.