The Real Pilot Shortage

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05-25-2007, 10:20 AM

#51

JoeyMeatballs

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Position: A-320

Posts: 6,929

I flew with a CA two days ago that said he didnt like FO's that hand flew, because he had to now "watch the airplane", and the FO.................... so as I was HAND FLYING descending through ten I asked him why had he been DEQUALED.............hehe guess he didn't know I had the dirt on him

05-25-2007, 10:28 AM

#52

Slice

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Position: Spartan

Posts: 3,652

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAABaroowski

Easy way to fix that...I'd let you swing gear for the rest of the trip.

I didn't care what my FO's did as long as it didn't scare me or make my job more difficult.

05-25-2007, 11:37 AM

#53

RedeyeAV8r

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Posts: 2,838

Quote:

Originally Posted by robthree

How long were you at US Air?

Eight agonizing years...........Actually two good ones, six not so good ones is more a more accurate description.

05-29-2007, 09:55 PM

#54

atpcliff

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Joined APC: Mar 2007

Position: Capt

Posts: 3,215

Hi!

The problem with hiring all the 250 hour guys, is who's going to instruct???

I just read that China needs 10,000 pilots over the next 3 years. I already knew India needed 11,000 over the next 3. They produce about 1,000 pilots a year.

So, India and China, will need an influx of 6,000 pilots PER YEAR for the next 3 years, and then it will get worse for them!!!

The US has the only spare pilots laying around, and we won't have 18K of them over the next three years!

I think when everyone (UAL/NWA/USAir/AA/FedEx/UPS) is hiring, the Ab-Initio programs will start, as all the PAX airlines will have SEVERE service disuptions,.

cliff
YIP

05-29-2007, 09:59 PM

#55

SharkAir

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So maybe the real money in aviation would be setting up a rating factory in China or India. Anybody want to go in 50/50?

05-30-2007, 05:59 AM

#56

Lanesuzza

VW Bus Driver

Joined APC: Oct 2006

Position: ERJ145XR

Posts: 140

There are flight schools across the USA that are the pilot factories for China and India. Just in Arizona I know of 2 schools with over 300 Chinese students each.

I talked to one Chinese student yesterday that was told instead of the Airbus, he will now learn the CRJ and go to work for JOs (Mesa's) Chinese Airline. Can you imagine, working in a country with no labor laws for a company that is notorious for abusing it's workers, like Mesa??? Yeah Sign me up!!!

07-01-2007, 08:58 AM

#57

pilotrod

Line Holder

Joined APC: Nov 2005

Posts: 45

Quote:

Originally Posted by aerospacepilot

Exactly. Skyhigh likes to claim there are thousands of pilots "sidelined" who would come back should pay/benefits/qol increase. What I am saying is 70,000 ATP pilots will be inelegible to fly in the next 12 years. Not that there will be 70,000 retirements from airlines.

For airline retirement numbers, I added up some recent numbers, and there will be at least 20,000 pilots will retire from the “good” airlines over the next 10 years assuming age 60. (AA, UAL, DAL, CAL, US Air, FedEx, UPS, SWA). And that is not counting Northwest, ABX, Astar, Air Tran, Frontier, JetBlue, Alaska, Midwest, Spirit, ATA, and ALL the regional airlines. (Not saying these weren’t “good” airlines, I just don’t have the retirement numbers for them).

Regional airlines will try to keep their entry level pay as low as possible. Even when they need to recruit more pilots, they will not raise pay. It is far better to these regionals to use a temporary fix (such as signing bonuses). Raising first year pay will not just attract new pilots, but it would give a pay bump to pilots who are already at the airline (regionals don't want this). Signing bonuses can be rescinded as soon as the hiring pool gets fuller, or hiring slows down.
These are the steps I see regional airlines taking to get pilots:
1. Lowering minimums
2. Signing bonuses
3. Retention bonuses

Almost all regionals (except Skywest & Horizon) have lowered their minimums already. Expect them to only get lower in the coming future. Signing bonuses are happening at Mesa, Piedmont, and Republic. Expect these to catch on at more airlines in the near future. I think retention bonuses are the next logical step for airlines to keep pilots.

I went on a 3 hour flight landing at several usually busy GA airports today, and there just aren't as many people flying today as there were several years ago.

I have to agree. I retired from banking 5 years ago, spend a lot of time at the airport with my A36 bonanza. I have noticed a drastic decrease in general aviation traffic recently. Many pilots I know are selling their airplanes because of the increase in fuel prices. Just think how much the cost of building multi time has increased. A barron burns about 28 gallons per hour. Fuel has gone up an average of 2 dollars per gallon over the last few years. That is a $56 per hour increase in a barron, times 100 hours $5,600. Thats just the increase in cost of building 100 hours. If you think there is a shortage of civilian trained pilots now, just wait a few years. The airlines are going to have to start their own training programs if they want a steady supply of pilots in the future. I predict there won't even be enough 200 hour private pilots if they ever lowered the minimums that low.

07-01-2007, 09:13 AM

#58

saab2000

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pilotrod

If you think there is a shortage of civilian trained pilots now, just wait a few years. The airlines are going to have to start their own training programs if they want a steady supply of pilots in the future. I predict there won't even be enough 200 hour private pilots if they ever lowered the minimums that low.

Add to that the fact that eventually people will find out that the career pays poorly, has unstable schedules and domiciles, poorly managed carriers and operations and you will have a recipe for a real staffing disaster at the lesser carriers in a few years.

It is already happening at some places like Mesa. The shortage will manifest itself at the bottom first and work its way up.

Three years ago I would talk to people who were telling me that there was a 10-year furlough list at places like AA, United, US Airways, etc. Nowadays they are either completely through those lists or getting about a 20% return rate. They will bleed the regionals dry when they start hiring. The regionals will have a harder time than finding even low-time pilots.

Then, and only then, will the laws of supply and demand come into effect and there may be some bargaining power on the part of the pilots.

07-01-2007, 12:01 PM

#59

flynavyj

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Position: SIC

Posts: 1,367

When it comes to the higher costs of training, i believe the pilot factory might be the only way to go in the future. The cheapest twins you can rent would probably be the duchess and the siminole, both of which burn about 10 gallons per engine, less if you get higher, but twin training rarely takes you above 10k ft...that new twinstar seems to be the only "modern" aircraft for twin training being produced, it sips gas, but initial costs could buy a company an old A90 King Air, which would lead me to believe that the pilot factory might soon be the only way to get your "advanced" training, or atleast, the price for it vs. the price savings of the FBO might slowly go by the wayside.

07-01-2007, 04:57 PM

#60

mccube5

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Quote:

Originally Posted by flynavyj

I think depending on where you live that cost savings from the FBO might already be a thing of the past. I started my flight training in Western NY and went to an academy after private and can tell you I saved money going the academy route. Top that off with the higher quality of training i received going to the larger school it was a no brainer to go that route.