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The Real Pilot Shortage

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Old 05-20-2007, 07:56 PM
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How about just raising entry level pay to attract more, and more highly skilled, folks to the profession.
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Old 05-20-2007, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by de727ups View Post
How about just raising entry level pay to attract more, and more highly skilled, folks to the profession.
Now that's just crazy talk!
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Old 05-20-2007, 09:22 PM
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scary, TSA actually "talked" about raising pay apparently to 3rd yr for first year. I'm sure the big wigs then laughed at how stupid that idea was, and hulas smoked a big cuban cigar while counting the $8 million he was about to give to some guy for a house in florida.
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Old 05-20-2007, 09:29 PM
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Originally Posted by de727ups View Post
How about just raising entry level pay to attract more, and more highly skilled, folks to the profession.
One word: Mesa
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Old 05-21-2007, 04:29 AM
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J.O. said that as long as he has a stack of resumes on his desk that pilots are overpaid.

In a sense he's right. At least with regards to market economics. Don't get me wrong, I think we are all underpaid for what we do. But there is a bit of free market at work here.

They are starting to offer the bonuses, but it will be a while until they offer higher pay IMHO. Maybe one day, but not in the immediate future.
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Old 05-21-2007, 04:39 AM
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Originally Posted by flynavyj View Post
scary, TSA actually "talked" about raising pay apparently to 3rd yr for first year. I'm sure the big wigs then laughed at how stupid that idea was, and hulas smoked a big cuban cigar while counting the $8 million he was about to give to some guy for a house in florida.
They must realize that something needs to be done. My class is going to recieve a "housing stipend" of a couple hundred bucks. Just a few months ago they weren't doing this, or paying for hotel rooms for out-of-towners for that matter.
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Old 05-21-2007, 05:37 AM
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I don't think that entry level pay is the problem. Overall career expectations are what is at stake. This profession made more sense when you didn't have to spent 150K in education and training costs to get a career that pays less than a plumber.

And airline pilots also worked less ten years ago. Who wants to be gone more than half the year?

The truly sad part is that most don't figure all this out until after their second year at a regional.

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Old 05-21-2007, 05:56 AM
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The whole package- compensation, the risk, the educational expense, the quality of life at a regional, the competition and competitiveness for promotion, it all adds up and is clearly not very attractive to anyone who wants good things in life. I think that if people knew what they were getting into there would be no pilot surplus. I am convinced the real problem is the lack of dissemination of truthful information about the industry and the tendency for new pilots to allow their eyes to remain covered as to what they are getting into. It does not surprise me that they quit when they find out in 2 years.
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Old 05-21-2007, 06:25 AM
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Pilots will work past 60 if they can. Most will have no choice. The age 65 rule will have an effect on the bottom line for everyone.

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Old 05-21-2007, 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
There are absolutely NOT 142,000 airline pilots in the US.
Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
I do not think he said there were 145,000 atp's who are working, just that they exist, presumably according to some valid source such as the FAA.
Exactly. Skyhigh likes to claim there are thousands of pilots "sidelined" who would come back should pay/benefits/qol increase. What I am saying is 70,000 ATP pilots will be inelegible to fly in the next 12 years. Not that there will be 70,000 retirements from airlines.

For airline retirement numbers, I added up some recent numbers, and there will be at least 20,000 pilots will retire from the “good” airlines over the next 10 years assuming age 60. (AA, UAL, DAL, CAL, US Air, FedEx, UPS, SWA). And that is not counting Northwest, ABX, Astar, Air Tran, Frontier, JetBlue, Alaska, Midwest, Spirit, ATA, and ALL the regional airlines. (Not saying these weren’t “good” airlines, I just don’t have the retirement numbers for them).

Originally Posted by de727ups
How about just raising entry level pay to attract more, and more highly skilled, folks to the profession.
Regional airlines will try to keep their entry level pay as low as possible. Even when they need to recruit more pilots, they will not raise pay. It is far better to these regionals to use a temporary fix (such as signing bonuses). Raising first year pay will not just attract new pilots, but it would give a pay bump to pilots who are already at the airline (regionals don't want this). Signing bonuses can be rescinded as soon as the hiring pool gets fuller, or hiring slows down.
These are the steps I see regional airlines taking to get pilots:
1. Lowering minimums
2. Signing bonuses
3. Retention bonuses

Almost all regionals (except Skywest & Horizon) have lowered their minimums already. Expect them to only get lower in the coming future. Signing bonuses are happening at Mesa, Piedmont, and Republic. Expect these to catch on at more airlines in the near future. I think retention bonuses are the next logical step for airlines to keep pilots.


I went on a 3 hour flight landing at several usually busy GA airports today, and there just aren't as many people flying today as there were several years ago.
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