Bid where you WANT to be, not where you think "movement" exists. MSP has been senior for a while, as many live there/close to there. It went junior by initial movement. Predicting vacancy bids is not an art of the FO side, better described as a WAG. Bid where you want to be, eventually you will be there, and folks will backfill. Going from driving to work, to commuting to reserve, being in a drivable base or easy commute is worth a boatload in the QOL column.

When I was first hired it was "any base is open", I lived in one and moved there, during training (with bids ongoing), it became "everyone is going here"... 3 months of commuting later I was back in the base I actually wanted with a drive to work. Made everything much easier. That's a reality of any carrier.