Originally Posted by
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AA is downsizing the fleet (40+ planes this year alone) and the increased efficiencies in the new contract will put a damper on hiring. Already has on the LUS side.
Aircraft on the way out is just one part of the story. The other part pertains to aircraft on the way in. The MD-80s are being retired as everyone should know. The 757-200s are also being retired.
But what about the aircraft orders? Have you taken a look at those numbers at all? The 757s are being replaced by A321s and the MD-80s by 737s among other aircraft such as the A319. This doesn't take into account new aircraft types such as the 787 or new variants such as the 777-300ER.
Long story short, AA's fleet continues to grow and be robust. Yes, older less efficient aircraft are being replaced by newer models. But the aircraft arriving are more than just replacements. The last aircraft order was for 460 narrow bodies from Boeing and Airbus. 460 more than replaces all MD-80s and 757s. It adds to the fleet numbers as well.
I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but the current fleet of MD-80s is around 100 and should be completely retired by 2017. There are also another 50 or so 757s that will be retired. A few older America West A320s will also be retired.
All totaled that is 150 to 200 aircraft retired in the next few years. The current aircraft order for AA more than eclipses that number. There's another 150 A320s alone due to arrive, not to mention the 737 orders, 787s, remaining 777s, and the A350 which should begin to arrive in 2017.
And in the midst of all that is an unprecedented amount of retirements at the combined AA. There is no getting around age 65. Like I said before, AA's class sizes WILL increase and will probably be larger than anything Delta or United is currently running. Larger class sizes = more Envoy flow throughs since Envoy's flow is a percentage of each class and not a hard number.