Originally Posted by
oldmako
Hey, lets not derail a good rant!
I'd venture a guess that over the last 15 years, a huge number of guys, say 30-40 percent of the pilot group have been bumped to reserve. And what percentage of the airline is currently on reserve? Every seat, every plane, every domicile has guys on reserve every day. "F-EM! They bid it!" is the new mantra. As Anita Bryant used to say, "Reserve!, Its not just for CHOOSERS anymore!"
The last three years of musical airplane chairs was what? A dream?
This 2 year bandaid will pass and we won't see the next contract for at least 7 years. No changes to QOL issues, sick leave accrual, training pay, PBS, etc etc etc. Hope the narrow body guys like 31 hours in CLE (etc) for zero pay! The company will get the relief they want for pennies on the dollar and we will have blown a great opportunity. They will have zero incentive to negotiate. Its likely that by then, our contract will be so cheap (relative to DAL) that it will pay them to dig in their heels.
The pendulum swung and knocked us on our a$$e$ after 9-11. Its finally swinging back and we're wiling to sell ourselves short for 13% in quick cash. You've got to doff your cap to Oscar and chalk up another huge win for Willis. Section 6 openers are RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER and, THEY CAME TO US! When that ever happened?
James, I've always respected you on this board. Even though we disagree here, that stays true. I respect your point of view. I see if differently, but it certainly doesn't mean I'm correct. I think what it comes down to is how much is our present leverage worth. You assume that if we went into section 6, the company would give us the same pay rates PLUS improvements in every other area you've mentioned, and still ask for no concessions in other areas. As they do a cost dollar analysis for everything, what you're saying is that the leverage we have with the FRMS needs of the company is worth more than we extracted. I think that is where we disagree. I'm betting the negotiating committee extracted as much as they possibly could. In the face of what has been offered to the other pilot groups, I think what we got looks rather good. It seems to me (NO EXPERT) that we got a lot for the leverage we had. I think this by looking DAL, SWA, AMR, heck throw UPS in there. Record profits are NOT motivating the company to negotiate and the railway labor act neuters much of whatever leverage we can gain. There is a need from the company here clearly, and they were willing to pay for it. You keep saying that 16/3/2 is pennies on the dollar. You suggest that a section 6 negotiation is going to take 5 years (since you suggest we are now 7 years out from a new contract). That 7 years at 15% more than we have now (21%-6%) is a LOT of money. During that 7 years I think we all expect the situation to swing back towards the negative in our industry. Let's say we start negotiating next year and it takes the 5 years you suggest. In year 2 we have a major downturn and the company is no longer looking to give us ANY improvements, but actually looking for concessions? I would rather sail through that storm 15% higher PER YEAR than I am now.
As far as reserve improvements go, if a contract is going to take 5 years then those are 5 years away anyway. And I doubt we will be negotiating from the position of strength that we have now. 15% per year at $200,000 (around the average pay for a narrowbody Captain or Widebody FO flying normal hours under the new rates) is 30,000 a year x your 5 years is $150,000 PER PILOT. Multiply that x 12,000 pilots and you're at $360 million. That's WITHOUT any DAL me too. That's a big number for the leverage we have, or at least not "pennies on the dollar" in my opinion.
Again, I know you don't agree with this analysis, and I understand. Not asking you to. I just have a different perspective. Whichever way this goes, I hope that it works out well for all of us.