For someone hired right now seniority would be about 1970 most Jr captain is about 1170. The company announced 200 upgrades and 300 flows next year. But then later raised the flow closer to 360-400. So i am assuming that they will need more upgrades. Say 250. And with alot of high time and military newhires recently and a few Sr FO's going to LLC's assume Fo attrition to be 50 next year. That leaves 500 FO's over a year and a half that need to upgrade, die, retire or move on. I'm going to assume after first year that attrition will be only about 10 per year. If the company stops shrinking and has a little growth from planes returning from xjet and tsa management has said. Upgrades should match or exceed flow in 2017. IF that number is 360. That only leaves 130 FO's to upgrade over the first 6 months of 2018. So it is mathematically possible. While it does require AA to continue to hire 60 or more per month and Envoy to stop shrinking it is possible. The question is what will happen to the 145's at xjet and tsa. AAG has an option to move them as they come to heavy check or 2 years which ever is first. The planes started going well over a year ago. But will they move them and where to are un known. But envoy currently has a trained staff of 145 pilots flying less than line guarantee. So it would be possible to add flying without changing staffing.