I'll also make one more addition. Don't forget that pretty much all of the guys in the 824 don't have their apps out since they are relatively close to flowing. However, almost every CA outside the 824 almost certainly does. My point is as we move forward into 2016 and 2017 as well, I wont be surprised to see more and more CA move on to whatever companies their interested in flying for.
This too I believe is also in AAG's computations. I think that's where the large disparity between what we all believe to be a more realistic number and what AAG is saying. They have best case scenarios built into their computations when that's probably not the case.
I'll say this much for either you guys who are here and are Jr. FO's or are considering coming here. While theirs plenty to complain about envoy and I wouldn't disagree for the most part, one thing we have is a set attrition that as of now AAG has honored and doesn't seem to show any signs of letting up. That is real movement that will IMO continue. Like I've said before and I say to the FO's I fly with. Stay out of trouble, put your apps out to whomever you want, and worst case you have a flow in your back pocket. That's not a terrible deal.